Alternative Energy and the President - Oil Industry in Clear and Present Danger

Oh solitude! Where are the charms

That sages have seen in thy face?

Better dwell in the midst of alarms

Than reign in the horrible place

Cowper, Verses supposed to be written by Alexander Selkirk

Senator Barack Obama, President of the United States of America, is doing the right thing, despite distractions to the contrary, that being the fact that the Economy of the United States of America is headed over the cliff, like little lemmings, into the precipice of a Second Recession as opined in the article “Global downturn signals ice, with fire only much later, for international investment markets”, published Sunday, August 22, 2010 The Jamaica Observer, which, based on my calculations, will be much worse than the first.

By what crystal ball do I devine this? The price of Oil is in a freefall, now posting on average US$74 on the Mercantile Exchanges worldwide as stated in the article “Oil falls below US$74”, published Sunday, August 22, 2010, AFP, The Jamaica Observer.

The reason is best expressed by the analyst Phil Flynn of PFG Best Research who puts it succinctly: “Fears about the economy are not good for Oil. As total petroleum supplies rise to all time highs it can only mean one thing and that is demand is falling far below supply”.

Jobless claim ramped up in the mid Third Quarters to five hundred thousand (500,000). This metric is an indirect expression of Consumer Confidence, as if there is no assurance of work, then people are less likely to spend or take vacations during the Summer, albeit they will buy themselves a little bit of comfort, which would explain the buying spree of Apple iPads, Apple iPhones and other competing smart phones and gadgets.

This reduced motoring as well as reduced usage of electricity for other domestic purposes reflects in the demand for Oil, as primarily, Oil is refined for motor vehicle usage. Thus the equation reads as follows: High jobless rate + High claim for unemployment benefits = Lower demand for Oil.

The decrease in Oil prices is a reflection of this lower demand. But a new development will lower it even further in the future, that being the actions of Senator Barack Obama, President of the United States of America, Venture Capitalist in Chief.

The Obama Administration has signaled that it may soon see a permanent ban on Oil Exploration and Drilling off the coast of the United States of America. He has also, in the same breath, committed taxpayers money to likes of Silicon Valley Venture capital firms focused on Clean Energy technology as stated in the article “Obama commits billions to solar firms”, published July 4, 2010 11:34 AM PDT by Reuters, CNET News - Green Tech.

There is hope of stimulating the Solar Power Industry, a more firm commitment towards a natural sustainable environment and more importantly, beating the People’s Republic of China in the race to develop All-Electric Vehicles for export as is obvious from the article “The Other U.S. Energy Crisis: Lack of R&D”, published June 17, 2010, 12:01AM EST By Peter Coy, POLITICS & POLICY, BusinessWeek.

There is also a commitment towards the development of battery technologies to power All-Electric Cars as stated in the article “Obama: Clean energy's Venture Capitalist-in-Chief”, published August 5, 2010, 5:00PM EST By Mike Dorning, POLITICS & POLICY, BusinessWeek.

The Obama Administration jump started the recently bailed out Auto Industry, which the Obama Administration now has on a leash, as not only can the President dictate the term of their recovery via state tax laws against gas guzzlers as stated in the article “Will 'fun-factor' or mandates drive electric car sales?”, published March 6, 2010 1:56 PM PST by Martin LaMonica, CNET News - Green Tech.

Tax breaks for buyers of All-Electric Vehicles will spur their sales, as already the Nissan Leaf will garner a considerable after-rebate price that will certainly encourage All-Electric car adoption.

All-Electric Vehicle purchases are possibly the best way that taxpayers can send a message to the Oil Companies, as by buying into technology that will reduce their over spending on fuel, it becomes the vox populi that will accelerate the breaking of the linkage between Big Oil and the American Congress and their irresponsible behavior as demonstrated by the BP Oil Disaster as opined in the article “The Electric car might be the perfect Second ride”, published  August 3, 2010, 4:35PM EST By Ed Wallace, WALLACE'S WORLD, BusinessWeek.

The statistics seem to favour a mass adoption of these vehicles by the American driving public. Consumers surveyed found electric cars interesting thought concerns merely centered on performance issues, as John Public surmises and not necessarily buying an All-Electric Car for its “gadgetry goodness” and indication that the interest is there but not the money, at least not this year.

The Government of the United States of America would have to give significant subsidies to Consumers and Automakers to encourage the adoption of All-Electric Vehicles despite all that they can do for the environment as intoned by the article  “Will 'fun-factor' or mandates drive electric car sales?”, published March 6, 2010 1:56 PM PST by Martin LaMonica, CNET News - Green Tech with the obvious advantage of reducing their Oil bill.

Consumer Reports National Survey Center reported than more Americans were interested in an All-Electric Vehicle on their next purchase with 26% saying that they are like to do so and 7% making their declaration more definitive and concise stopping short of confirming a purchase as stated in the article “Survey: Consumers intrigued by electric cars”, published March 19, 2010 8:53 AM PDT, by Martin LaMonica, CNET News - Green Tech.

Albeit not scientific as it is a random phone survey involving 1,752 adults, it was nonetheless an interesting bell weather for an Auto Industry looking for some good news to validate any money being spent on research into drive trains and battery technologies, hints of the pot of gold at the end of the Research rainbow if you will, this time with an aim to make them commercially viable, Global Recession be damned, as 2011 appears to be the year of the All-Electric Vehicle.

Prices on par with regular vehicles would them as common as washing machines or cell phones as hopefully opined in the article “Will electric cars spread like cell phones or washing machines?”, published May 14, 2010 11:49 AM PDT by Martin LaMonica, CNET News - Green Tech by Deloitte Consulting which indicated an adoption of All-Electric Vehicles in the United States of America of 2% to 5.6% by 2020, numbering between 285,000 and 840,000 units.

Using the Nissan Leaf or Tesla Model S, both All-Electric Vehicles another analyst Credit Suisse estimates 335,000 All-Electric cars by 2020 while Citi forecasts more than 1 million (1,000,000) and the Traffic Safety Administration says 750,000. 

Deloitte consultant Rebecca Ranish puts in perspective, comparing the adoption of All-Electric Vehicles to washing machines and dryers, which were luxury items until as she put it, “The telephone, the radio, the refrigerator were all reliant on infrastructure to support adoption and in some cases may have been slowed by infrastructure. Electric vehicles will have a similar series of challenges”.

And like the Apple iPhone, consultant Robert Hill is quoted as saying that “There are plenty of early adopters, but the real question is about the early majority. That segment is big enough to start a mass adoption curve”, indicative of a typical market driven by early-adopters, much like smart phones were back in early 2007.”

Ironically, it may eventually be the mass adoption of Hybrids and All-Electric Vehicles in the Summer of 2011, jump starting the American Auto Industry and not a soft economy exacerbated by a weak employment rate that might trigger further slides in the price of Oil in the future, specifically between now and Summer of 2011.

Interestingly, the spin-offs are self evident: more Green Energy jobs in Silicon Valley, reduce Oil Bill and thus more tax dollars saved and will thus reduce the impact of the coming Second Recession

Not to mention bolster the United States of America and its competitive spirit as it relates to spending on Research in hopes of beating the People’s Republic of China, which is investing heavily in Clean energy Technologies, inclusive of batteries for All-Electric Vehicles as stated in the article “The Other U.S. Energy Crisis: Lack of R&D”, published June 17, 2010, 12:01AM EST By Peter Coy, POLITICS & POLICY, BusinessWeek.

The cons of this decision are jobs lost in the Oil Industry and Taxes, albeit these losses will not be for long, as Oil Exploration will still continue, but this time for the purpose for above ground stockpiling as a buffer to keep Oil prices low.

Also, the shrimp are back, having dined on a nutritious diet of algae, bacteria and phytoplankton that is still feeding on the Oil cloud suspended roughly about a mile down in the Gulf of Mexico as implied in the article “Shrimpers report clean 1st day catch after spill”, published Wednesday, August 18, 2010, AP, The Jamaica Observer

This made it safe for the President and Sasha to swim, the possibility of a shark attack not with standing as stated in the article “Obama swims in Gulf, says beaches open for business”, published Sunday August 15, 6:57 am ET by Ross Colvin, Yahoo! News. Senator Barack Obama, President of the United States of America is inspiring Americans with change that the people of the United States of America can truly believe in.

Just, please, tell that to Senator James Robertson, Minister of Energy and Mining, who appears not to know that with the coming must-have gadget in the form of All-Electric Vehicles, Jamaica will be left behind yet again, as we are still behind, having only E10 when E85 is available and usable in the United States of America.