IEA 5.6 billion Air Conditioners Globally by 2050 heralds the rise of Solar Powered Air Conditioners

“Growing electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots in today’s energy debate. With rising incomes, air conditioner ownership will skyrocket, especially in the emerging world. While this will bring extra comfort and improve daily lives, it is essential that efficiency performance for ACs be prioritized. Standards for the bulk of these new ACs are much lower than where they should be.”

Director of the IEA., Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive, commenting on their report The Future of cooling - Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning

The Earth is getting hotter due to Global Warming. So the demand for cooling is going to skyrocket.

So says the IEA (International Energy Agency) who are predicting that by 2050, global energy demand for air conditioners is expected to triple as reported in the article “Air conditioning use emerges as one of the key drivers of global electricity-demand growth”, published 15 May 2018, IEA.

Their report, titled “The Future of cooling - Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning” projects that by 2050, there will be 5.6 billion air conditioners in buildings. This is more than the current 1.6 billion today, of which 50% are in China and the United States.

In practical terms, that 5.6 billion air conditioners translates to 10 new ACs sold every second for the next 30 years, as pointed out in their IEA YouTube video.

So what implications does this have for our modern way of life?

The Future of cooling - IEA AC prediction tempered by the rise in Solar PV Power

On way to look at this is in terms of the demand for energy these power hungry devices will bring.

This is not new really as Dr. Michael Taylor, Climatologist and Head of the Department of Physics, Pure and Applied Sciences, University of the West Indies has been pointing this out for some time as noted in my blog article entitled “Dr. Taylor's states Global Warming increasing Jamaica's Energy Bill - Vybz Kartel's Summertime Soylent Green”.

The current stock of air conditioners and electric fans use 10% of all global electricity consumption today. As more Jamaicans and other people living in countries lost to the Equator and in the Temperate zones “step up inna life”, they'll begin to spend more on air conditioners and fans.

AC use is expected to be the second-largest source of global electricity demand growth. It'll trail the industry sector, and the strongest driver for buildings by 2050.

Interestingly, by 2050, the IEA also predict that Solar PV (Photovoltaics) may beat out coal in terms of providing electricity to supply all this rising demand for energy as explained in my blog article entitled “IEA says Solar PV is fastest growing Energy source while Jamaica is adopting LNG”.  

In fact, they predict that global renewable electricity capacity to rise by more than 920 gigawatts, or 44%, by 2022. So with enough power to supply all global demand coming from Renewable resources, why the need for conservation?

Global Warming and AC - Photovotaics cannot handle increase in AC Power Demand

Supplying power to these ACs comes with large costs and environmental implications. The report identifies key policy actions.

In an Efficient Cooling Scenario, which is compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement, the IEA finds that through stringent minimum energy performance standards and other measures such as labelling, the average energy efficiency of the stock of ACs worldwide could more than double between now and 2050.

This would greatly reduce the need to build new electricity infrastructure to meet rising demand.

Making cooling more efficient would have multiple benefits such as:

1.      Making energy more affordable

2.      Making Energy more secure

3.      Making Energy more sustainable

4.      Saving US$2.9 trillion in investment, fuel and operating costs

The stats are also against increasing energy capacity just to meeting cooling:

1.      90% of households have air conditioning in the United States and Japan

2.      8% of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world have air conditioning

That is less than 30% of hired of global households owning an air conditioner. Such a sharp increase among households in AC usage could see electricity loads on power grids spike as much as 45% in 2050.

Surprisingly, the rise in Solar PV cannot meet that demand, as electricity well also be needed to power everything else from the Internet to Electric Vehicles, which Developing World households are sure to want as predicted in my blog article entitled “Why JUTC going Hybrid indicates removal of 60% import duty on Electric Vehicles”. 

 ACs sold in Japan and the European Union are typically 25% more efficient than those sold in the United States and China. Efficiency improvements could reduce this future energy monster.

Mandatory energy performance standards will have to be used to force manufacturers to make more energy efficient AC, such as the Samsung Wind-Free Air Conditioners as explained in my Geezam blog article entitled “Samsung Wind-Free Air Conditioners is Cooling without the Breeze”. 

Samsung’s AC's use R32, an environmentally-friendly refrigerant alternative, to keep in line with the strengthened environmental regulations in Europe! When compared with the standard R410A refrigerant, R32 has only one-third of its global warming potential (GWP) and is characterized by its high-efficiency even in lower quantities.

So what if all AC’s became energy Efficient? Would that stem the rising demand in AC?

Mandatory Energy Efficient AC Standards - The Quest for Solar Powered Air Conditioners

Short answer is no, as the IEA is wrong. The demand for electricity is going to grow faster than expected, as Fans may be the go-to device for cooling rather than AC.

Instead I predict the rise in AC usage will be in motor vehicles. Motor vehicle AC, which are not included in this report, will have an impact on motor vehicle fuel economy. This translates to increased demand in electricity, as electric generation will have to increase when Electric Vehicle becomes more mainstream.

One simple way to make Air conditioners more efficient, be they for households or for motor vehicles, is to simply not connect them to the grid.

A law needs to be passed in third world countries such as Jamaica so that once any AC is being sold, it must be sold with its own Solar or Wind Based power source or even some type of Hydrogen fuel cell such as the one described in my blog article entitled “Intelligent Energy Hydrogen Fuel Cell for Apple - How Hydrogen can give Apple products weeks of battery life by 2017”

This so that the device doesn't have to be tied to grid power – and yes, it is possible to power AC's using Solar Power as this video indicates.

       

Director of the IEA., Dr Fatih Birol, points out that by making AC more efficient, we reduce the need for new sources of power to fuel our cooling passion, quote: “Setting higher efficiency standards for cooling is one of the easiest steps governments can take to reduce the need for new power plants, and allow them at the same time to cut emissions and reduce costs”.

This will leave more of that new Renewable Energy capacity to fuel Electric Vehicles and do other things besides keeping our houses and cars cool.