How Math, Sorrel Shortage of 2015, Dead Babies Scandal and Younger Voters stopped Jamaica's General Election 2015

The delay of the General Election came as quite a surprise to many Jamaicans.

On Sunday November 22^nd 2015, Prime Minister of Jamaica Portia Simpson-Miller during a campaign meeting in Black River, St Elizabeth, decided that Jamaica would not go to the polls as reported in the article “No 2015 Poll - Portia Opts Not To Call Election This Year”, Published Monday November 23, 2015 by Daraine Luton, The Jamaica Gleaner.

This after building up anticipation for quite awhile. Still she did say that Elections would not be called during the Christmas period, making Santa Clause (read Business people) fearful of Election violence interfering with their business quite happy.

However, this delay will cost Jamaica quite a bit, roughly about JA$20 million plus as noted by Director of Elections, Orrette Fisher in the article “ECJ Still Calculating Cost Of Delayed Announcement Of Elections”, Published Tuesday December 1, 2015, The Jamaica Gleaner.

The ECJ (Electoral Commission of Jamaica) was all revved up to go, training Election Day workers as setting up polling stations. So now with this snap announcement, all that activity has been halted basically saving Christmas, throwing the JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) off Track!

So why would the PNP (People's National Party) call it quits when the going was so good?

PM calls off General Elections - Why the Dead Babies Scandal of 2015 means General Elections now would be Political suicide

The answer is not politics but science!

The PNP is currently being inundated with scandal after scandal, most notable the death of some nineteen (19) out of the forty two (42) babies have died from Klebsiella and Serratia bacterial infection since June 2015 as noted in my blog article entitled “19 Babies now dead from Klebsiella and Serratia bacterial infections - How More Babies will Die as Drought continues”.

The Minister of Health Dr. Fenton Ferguson came under intense pressure from Public and Private Sector interest to resign as already managers at the UHWI (University Hospital of the West Indies) have resigned as noted in my blog article entitled “Public pressure over 19 Baby deaths forces Minister of Health to release Health Audit - Why UHWI Legal Action for Ministry of Health Coverup is coming”.

On Friday November 6^th 2015, Prime Minister of Jamaica Portia Simpson-Miller reassigned Minister of Health Dr. Fenton Ferguson to the Ministry of Labour and Social Security as noted in the article “Prime Minister Strips Ferguson Of Health Portfolio”, published Friday November 6, 2015, The Jamaica Gleaner.

This basically relieves Derrick Kellier, the Minister of Labour and Social Security of his portfolio and gives him a full time role in the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries which is still yet to launch a drone program to combat praedial Larceny both on land and at sea as noted in my blog article entitled “Jamaican Drone Contractors Testing Drones in Pedro Cays – Why Ministry of Agriculture needs Drones to catch Poachers in the Act”.

This strategy ensures that they keep the East St. Thomas constituency that Dr. Fenton Ferguson is in charge for almost five (5) terms, making him the longest serving MP as noted in the article “#ElectionJa – Meet Your MP: Dr Fenton Ferguson”, published  November 12, 2015 by diGJamaica.

So to fill the Ministry of Health Portfolio, she's drafted in Horace Dalley the minister with responsibility for the Public Service in the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service.

Already he's showing a new strategy with dealing with the death of the (nineteen (19) babies by actually meeting with the mothers not to negotiate but to offer his condolences as noted in the article “Dalley to meet with mothers of dead babies tomorrow”, published Thursday, November 12, 2015 by Tanesha Mundle, The Jamaica Observer. 

He's also dealing with a slowly growing scandal relating to the burial of sixty five (65) stillborn babies to which Minister of Health Horace Dalley has called a halt as noted in the article “Halt To Baby Burials - Dalley Asks If Mothers Still Want State To Dispose Of Bodies”, Published Monday November 30, 2015 by Christopher Serju, The Jamaica Gleaner.

He has also called a meeting on Sunday November 29th 2015 with the KPH (Kingston Public hospital), VJH (Victoria Jubilee Hospital) and SERHA (South Regional Health Authority) to discuss the matter as noted in the article “Dalley calls meeting with hospital management, halts burial of babies”, published Sunday, November 29, 2015, The Jamaica Observer.

This as many Jamaicans, who are good at math as I am, suspect that the sixty five (65) stillborn babies is a cover-up for the death of more babies from Klebsiella and Serratia bacterial infection. After all, a total of forty two (42) other babies were infected, of which nineteen (19) have died.

It would be easy to hide the remaining twenty three (23) among the stillborn babies, as no autopsy would be done on babies declared stillborn. Luckily, due to our religious beliefs, Jamaica is still not a country that incinerates the dead or slices them up to be use for medical research, as babies are a source of placenta and Stem cells.

So you see, it’s not politics, its math!

The Jamaican Public is not sure what’s really going on with the remaining twenty three (23) babies infected with Klebsiella and Serratia bacterial infection. Too many Jamaicans, this may be the PNP covering up their deaths by mixing them in with the sixty five (65) allegedly stillborn babies.

PM and Christmas – How the Great Sorrel Shortage of 2015 ad general Elections are a bad idea

But there is another science reason why Prime Minister of Jamaica Portia Simpson-Miller did not call the General Elections in December 2015!

Especially as Chicken, Pork and Sorrel are already in short supply as note in my blog article entitled “Why Great Jamaica Sorrel Shortage of 2015 caused by increasing yearly demand - How Turner Innovations Sorrel picking machine might save Christmas 2015”.

The Representation of the People Act states that Nomination Day shall be at least five (5) days after the announcement of an Election, with Election Day to be at least sixteen (16) days, or not more than twenty three (23) days, after Nomination day.

This is clearly not possible, as to avoid the twelve (12) days of Christmas, they have to call Elections on Wednesday, November 25^th 2015, which has already pas. Had this occurred, then counting from that day Nomination day would be on Monday November 30^th 2015.

Sixteen (16) days after that would be Election Day which would be on Wednesday, December 16^th 2015 or on Wednesday, December 23^rd 2015, well clear of Friday December 25 2015, Christmas Day!!

So Science, specifically mathematics (and the Great Sorrel Shortage of 2015), strikes again!

PM awaiting the New ECJ Voter's List - Why Younger Voters may vote against the PNP

But that’s not the only price of math to consider. Turns out another reason for her calling off the General Election aside from the Dead Babies Scandal and the great Sorrel Shortage of 2015.

This s the addition of some 37,000 new voters at the end of November 2015 as noted in “No 2015 Poll - Portia Opts Not To Call Election This Year”, Published Monday November 23, 2015 by Daraine Luton, The Jamaica Gleaner.

The Statistical breakdown for the for the 34,907 new names added to the list make for interesting reading as noted in the article “Youth account for 72% of new additions to voters’ list – ECJ”, published Wednesday, December 02, 2015, The Jamaica Observer.

According to the ECJ (Electoral Commission of Jamaica) the total voter list as of November 30th 2015 is as follows:

1.      1,824,410, is the total number of voters

2.      1,793,039 names was on the previous list published in May 2015

Thus a total of 31,371 persons have been newly enumerated since May till November 2015 and may be a part of the newly enumerated being counted in the now newly published Voter's list!!

The ECJ Monday November 30th 2015 voters’ list is composed as thus:

1.         34, 907 new names added to the list

2.         24, 964 of them fell within the 18 to 24 age group.

3.         72% fell within the 18 to 24 age group.

4.         18,589 of the 24,964 enumerated are between the ages of 18 and 19 years 

The newly enumerated added to the Voter's list are decidedly getting younger too:

1.      8,896 between 25 and 64 years of age

2.      1,047 people over 65 years 

Most of the newly enumerated across all age ranges came from specific constituencies:

1.         965 from St Catherine Southern

2.         864 Westmoreland Central

Voter apathy is at an all time high. The enumeration number indicating a younger voting public.

With the Great Sorrel Shortage of 2015 plus Pork and Chicken Shortages looming and the Baby Death Scandal so close, Science, specifically Mathematics, and not Politics, is dictating when the General Elections is to be called! With this much heat, cancelling the General Elections makes logical sense, especially when one considers the electorate, which is getting younger and more in JLP’s favour.

Granted, I don’t have the breakdown in terms of age groups across the entire voter's list. But if this is representative of the entire voter's list, the PNP would have lost for certain, as Health, Education and Work are universal concerns for Jamaicans from all walks of life!

Hopefully, it'll be called before St. Valentine's Day or Carnival, as those are Jamaican holidays as well!!!