How 12 million Apple Watch in 2015 needs Hydrogen Fuel Cells to beat @Huawei, @Fitbit, @Xiaomi, @Garmin and @TagHeuer

“We continue to view the Apple Watch as a potential door opener for wearable technology across the board, as this next paradigm shift is likely set to take place across the consumer/enterprise landscape”

FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives commenting on sales of the Apple Watch in Investor Notes November 2015

The Apple Watch was a smashing success in 2015!

So says FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives who says Apple may have sold some 12 million Apple Watches as reported in the article “Analyst doubles Apple Watch sales prediction to 12 million sold in 2015”, published November 30, 2015 by Julian Chokkattu, Digitaltrends.

 

To be specific, he's predicted the following:

1.      6 million in the Fourth Quarter of 2015

2.      12 million overall for all of 2015

These numbers seem in line with analyst Canalys figure of 7 million for the Third Quarter of 2015 that they presented on Wednesday November 4th 2015 as reported in my blog article entitled “7 million Apple Watch sold in Q3 2015 - Why Samsung, Asus, Huawei, LG and Motorola smartwatches need longer battery life”.

It also fits with my prediction for Apple to dominate the Wearable segment by the Fourth Quarter of 2015 as noted in my blog article entitled “IDC Stats for Wearables in the First Quarter of 2015 - US$13 Mi Band Fitness Monitor @Xiaomi No. 2 as Apple Watch to dominate Smartwatch segment by Q4 2015”.

At 12 million that more than the 11.4 million wearable devices were shipped worldwide in the First Quarter of 2015 based on stats from Research Manager for IDC Wearables, Ramon Llamas. This is more than Fitbit, Xiaomi, Garmin and Jawbone combined!

His evidence is somewhat flimsy; he uses anecdotal evidence as well as contacts at certain Apple stores to compile those numbers. Interestingly Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is predicting 30 million sales in the first year. KGI Securities analyst Ming Chi-Kuo is swinging for 15 million sales.

Both are way higher than FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives estimates. Moreover, he's claiming that the wearable devices market represents a US$20 billion plus market opportunity that Apple is yet to fully exploit.

So is this the real deal?

Apple sells 12 million in 2015 - Tag Heuer rattled and Android Wear is still catching up

It would appear to be the case, as evidence by how Apple's competition is responding.

Albeit off to a rough start in April 2015 as noted in my blog article entitled “Apple Watch Appointment Fittings coming Friday April 10th 2015 - Why Apple Appointments sets trend for How to sell a Wearable” their appointments strategy seems to be the best fit, pun intended!

Apple surpassed all expectations selling some 1 million units, beating the very sales figure it had taken Pebble two (2) years to achieve as noted in my blog article entitled “Apple Watch pre-orders sold out until June 2015 - How 1 million served equals Pebble Watch 2 years Sales in How to Sell a Wearable”.

The Apple watch may be picking up so much traction that it even began to disrupt the sales of Us Wristwatch maker who saw a 14% in June 2015 as noted in my blog article entitled “U.S. wristwatch sales in June 2015 dip due to Apple Watch - Why Apple Watch heralds Armageddon for U.S. and Swiss Watchmakers”.

This so rattled Tag Heuer that they released a US$1500 TAG Heuer Connected Watch in November 2015 as noted in my MICO Wars blog entitled “US$1500 TAG Heuer Connected Watch is worth its weight in precious Metals”.

The offering by Huawei and LG appeared to be Android Wear 2014 rehashes smothered with precious metals. The US$350 Huawei Watch in October 2015 is stylish but isn’t waterproof as noted in my MICO Wars blog entitled “Why US$350 Huawei Watch cannot be used for Sex in the shower”.

The US$1,200 LG Watch Urbane Luxe was not too bad but was too precious for arm candy as explained in my MICO Wars blog entitled “US$1,200 LG Watch Urbane Luxe in Gold and Leather for your lover this Christmas 2015”.

Apple US$20 billion market opportunity - 2016 the year of the Apple Watch and Apple Pay

The Second Quarter of 2015 ended with Apple estimated to have moved some 4 million Apple Watches in the Second Quarter of 2015 as reported in my blog article entitled “Apple sells 4 million Apple Watches - How Samsung, Asus, Huawei, LG and Motorola Empire Strikes back at IFA Trade Show”. 

So with analyst Canalys figure of 7 million for the Third Quarter of 2015, it would seem that the FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives is also a slight over estimate, albeit within the same conservative figure.  Apple remained quiet even as analysts such as Strategy Analytics tout the Apple Watch taking 72.8% of the wearable sales during the July-September period.

Apple, however, has coyly admitted that the Apple Watch outsold the first-generation iPad within nine weeks (9) as reported in “Apple sold more Apple Watches in 9 weeks than it sold iPhones and iPads when they first launched”, published July 21, 2015 by Nathan McAlone, BusinessWeek.

More proof that appointments is the best way to sell a smartwatch or any fashion accessory that doubles as Tech as noted in my Geezam blog article entitled “Apple’s Appointment hands-on Approach is why Apple Watch succeeded”.

If Apple can make the Apple Watch with a yearlong battery life, possibly powered by a Hydrogen Fuel cell as noted in my blog article entitled “Apple files patent for Hydrogen Fuel cell – Why Portable Hydrogen Fuel Cells needed to cut the Analog Power Cord” the Apple Watch would be a runaway success in 2016.

Even if they used some other technology such as solar, kinetic charging to extend the battery life as predicted in my blog article entitled “Apple considering Inductive, Solar and Kinetic Charging for Apple iWatch” this would be enough to make it last longer than two (2) days.

Throw in the expansion of Apple Pay in China in 2016 albeit missing the boat in South Africa as noted in my blog article entitled “Why WeChat ewallet in South Africa as ScotiaBank Jamaica and Digicel going Cashless” .

If Apple can revamp the Apple Watch by April 2016 as a must-have accessory that can do Apple Pay well, then that US$20 billion plus market opportunity would be theirs for the taking!

There is a lot more that I could add, but I'll wait until Apple reveals these figures or the analysts dust off their crystal balls and make predictions for 2016, the Year of the Monkey!