Why Chocolate Shortage in 2020 as Chinese, Indian and American addiction Inflates Price of Cocoa

“When it comes to Cocoa, the general rule of thumb is that demand outstrips supply and this has been the case for the last few years although 2013/14 has actually seen a 40,000 tonne surplus”

Lauren Bandy, food analyst at Euromonitor International in an interview about the impending Global shortage in Chocolate by 2020

Shocking news for Chocolate Lovers everywhere as I sip my Miracle Sweetened Instant Chocolate with Hazel Nut Flavour, which surprisingly for a 170g (6oz) tin only costs JA$126 at the Hi-Lo Supermarket in Cross Roads!

I sip it carefully as it appears that Chocolate may be running out by the year 2020 as reported in the article “Don’t panic, but we could be running out of Chocolate”, published 17 Nov 2014 5:58PM GMT by Lauren Davidson, Telegraph UK, if the current trend of the rising cost of Cocoa is anything to go by.

The price increase is mainly due to a fungal disease called Frosty Pod Rot that's killed off a third of the world's Cocoa in West Africa. West Africa is the major suppliers of Cocoa, the raw material for making Chocolate.

Meanwhile Ivory Coast and Ghana have been hit by a drought, forcing many farmers to switch to more water-resistant crops such as Corn and Rubber as detailed in “Don't panic, but we are RUNNING OUT of CHOCOLATE”, published Nov 17, 2014 13:51 By Helena Horton, Mirror UK.

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Chocolate Study – Chocolate a Luxury Food

This fits with projections based on a study released back in December 2011 by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation that predicted that Global Warming would result in a Global Cocoa and hence Chocolate Shortage as reported in the article “Chocolate will become an expensive luxury item due to climate change”, published 26 Dec 2011 8:00AM GMT by Louise Gray By Louise Gray, UK Telegraph.

Throw into that cauldron Ebola Virus scare that's decimate the labour forces in West Africa as reported in my blog article entitled “Jamaica officially on Ebola Alert - 4033 Dead in West Africa as US of A may Quarantine Latin America and the Caribbean” and you have a recipe for disaster.

Jamaican Chocolatier Averell French, owner and CEO of Mount Pleasant Chocolatiers uses Jamaican Cocoa to make Chocolate as explained in my blog article entitled “Mount Pleasant Chocolatiers Averell French making Chocolate - Master Architect is Jamaica's sole Chocolatier with Chocolate delights to resurrect Jamaica's Candy Industry”. So we already have a foot in this business.

So will Chocolate become a luxury food only affordable by the very wealthy by 2020?

Chocolate shortage in 2020 – Price of Cocoa on the rise making Chocolatiers see Dark Future

A deficit in Cocoa supply compared to demand to the world’s biggest Chocolate makers, most of whom are located in the US of A according to the International Cocoa Organization.

According to the International Cocoa Organization, Cocoa has been on the rise:

1.      70,000 tonnes in 2014

2.      1,000,000 tonnes by 2020

3.      2,000,000 tonnes by 2030

This deficit has caused prices to rise, according to Zurich, Switzerland based Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest Chocolate manufacturer, who up till Sunday August 2014 reported the following:

1.      1.72m tonnes of Chocolate sold in 2014

2.      1.54m tonnes of Chocolate sold up to August 31^st 2013

Thanks to the problems with the world's largest Cocoa Producers, the price of Cocoa has gone up considerably:

1.      £1,600 per tonne in 2013

2.      £2,000 per tonne in 2014

The following graph from the International Cocoa Organization shows that the price is heading North, and real fast too:

As of October 2014 according to the graph above, the prices of raw Cocoa stood at £ 3100.83 per tonne.

Chinese and American want Dark Chocolate – Health addiction means increased profits until 2020

So what's causing the huge demand in Chocolate? Dark Chocolate, which actually is just Chocolate with upwards of 70% to 80% real Cocoa and is actually healthier for you.

China and India are developing a taste for Chocolate rivaling that of the West for Wine as their income levels rise, which is also headed for a global shortage as I’d predicted in my blog article entitled “Australian analyst Morgan Stanley Stats say World Faces Global Wine Shortage - The Glass is either Half Empty of Half full as Chinese and Americans become more like the French”.

Also, Americans increasing deep love for being health conscious is resulting in a run on Dark Chocolate. Combined, they’re basically pushing up the price, which small producers of Cocoa for Coffee have been benefitting from as noted in the article “French to fill void for local Chocolate”, published Wednesday, April 16, 2014 BY STEVEN JACKSON Business , The Jamaica Observer.

So in short, not only will we run out of Wine, but also the Chocolate bon-bons to go with it as well. Hopefully by then we’ll be making Wine from every conceivable fruit to take advantage of that coming shortage as suggested in my blog article entitled “Red Stripe's Sorrel Beer - Opens up the Possibility of a Jamaican Fruit Tree of Beer Flavours”

To put it nicely, until that day that Chocolate become a luxury food, Jamaica will make a killing if we follow Chocolatier Averell French, owner and CEO of Mount Pleasant Chocolatiers and start  processing it into Dark Chocolate.