Jamaican Chikungunya Outbreak possible – Why H1N1 Outbreak in Jamaica possible as 1,731 die in India from H1N1 Outbreak

Since the cleanup started in October 2014, it seems we’ve fallen back into the same rut as it relates to taking preventative measures against the spread of the Chikungunya Virus.

This as  the ECDPC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) says there have been 293 new cases of the Chikungunya Virus have been reported in the Caribbean as stated in the article “More cases of Chikungunya virus reported in the Caribbean”, published Sunday, March 02, 2014, The Jamaica Observer.

The new cases of Chikungunya have been reported in the following Caribbean countries:

1.      Dominica

2.      French Guyana

3.      Guadeloupe

4.      Martinique

5.      St Barthélemy

6.      St Kitts and Nevis.

7.      St. Martin (French)

This is in addition to the 5, 900 suspected cases that have been reported since Saturday February 21^st, 2014 by the ECDPC. Which explains the Canadian Government via their Public Health Agency of Canada reissuing their travel advisory to their Canadian Citizens not to travel to the Caribbean as the Chikungunya outbreak is not yet over as reported in the article “Canada Issues Chikungunya Travel Warning”, published Monday February 2, 2015, The Jamaica Gleaner.

Luckily, there have been no reported deaths since PAHO (Pan-American Health Organization) made their statistics available in September 2014 as reported in my blog article entitled “31 infected during Jamaican Chikungunya Virus Epidemic - 113 Deaths in the Caribbean as Jamaica grapples with Chikungunya Virus Outbreak”.

Economic cost of Chikungunya Virus on Jamaica – GOJ not forthcoming but Opposition gives us an idea

The cost of the Chikungunya Virus has been conservatively estimated by Deputy Opposition spokesman on Industry, Investment, Commerce, Mining and Energy Senator Kent Gammon, LLM, as being around JA$30 million as stated in the article “The cost of Chikungunya to Jamaica”, published Monday, October 20, 2014 by Kent GAMMON, The Jamaica Observer.

This is of course, assuming five to ten (5 to 10) lost work days were 60% or one million six hundred thousand Jamaican earning a wage of JA$2000 per day were to be infected by the Chikungunya Virus. Substitute your company's average mean salary and the number of company employees and you can figure out that this is really a very, very conservative estimate.

Opposition spokesperson for finance and planning, Audley Shaw is a little cleverer, quoting the PIOJ (Planning Institute of Jamaica) preliminary estimates that suggested that the economy contracted in the Third and Fourth Quarter of 2014 as noted in the article “Chikungunya damaging to economy — Shaw”, published Sunday, March 01, 2015 12:57 PM, The Jamaica Observer.

The PIOJ figures read as follows:

1.      1.4% in the Third Quarter of 2014

2.      0.3% in Fourth Quarter of 2014

Senator Audley Shaw attributes this lack of growth during the Third and Fourth Quarter of 2014 to the loss of productivity due to the Chikungunya Epidemic.

As we're in the Caribbean, is there also a renewed outbreak of the Chikungunya Virus in Jamaica?

NSWMA neglecting Garbage since massive Cleanup in October 2014 - Jamaica facing another possible Chikungunya Outbreak

Since the cleanup in October 2014 as mentioned in my blog article entitled “JA$500 million National Health Emergency Response – 30% of Students absent from School as GOJ FINALLY serious about Chikungunya Epidemic”, there have now been reports of Chikungunya Virus making a comeback.

Garbage is starting to pile up in Payne Land community off Spanish Road and Tivoli Gardens community to Marcus Garvey Drive and with it comes the return of the breeding sites for the Aedes aegypti mosquito that spreads the Chikungunya Virus as stated in the article “Chik-V Relapse! - Communities Return To Garbage Pile-Ups And Mosquito Breeding Sites Months After $Multimillion Clean-Up”, published Sunday March 8, 2015 by Tyrone Thompson, The Jamaica Gleaner

Parts of Portmore are also seeing a return of Garbage pileups and with it the breeding grounds of the Mosquitoes. The NSWMA (National Solid Waste Management Authority) is still not collecting Garbage that's is piling up at schools.

This  despite the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health apparently teaming up in August 2014 on Strategies to prevent the spread of the Chikungunya Virus, one of which included cleaning up Garbage at the schools as noted in my blog article entitled “Education and Health Ministries Meet before 2014-15 Academic Year - How to Stop Chikungunya Virus spread by Aedes aegypti Mosquito among Children”.

Turns out the NSWMA is failing on that regard, with the Principal of the George Headley Primary School in Duhaney Park, St Andrew, Aretha Willie referring to the NSWMA's lack of action in collecting Garbage from the school premises as reported in the article “A Nightmare Of Trash!”, Published Sunday March 8, 2015 by Nadine Wilson-Harris, The Jamaica Gleaner.

Chikungunya infected still vulnerable – Influenza and H1N1 Outbreak due to weakened Immune Systems

Albeit the possibility of being re-infected a second time by the Chikungunya Virus may not be possible, since we may possible have reached the 60% threshold as stated by Dr Kevin Harvey, who was Acting Chief Medical Officer back in September 2014 in my blog article entitled “Minister of Health comes clean on Chikungunya Virus Epidemic - 35 Official Cases as 60 percent possibly Infected and Medicines running low”, a new outbreak may still be possible among the remaining population who haven't been infected as yet.

But it might result in an outbreak of Influenza, as with many Jamaican still recovering from the Chikungunya Virus as reported in the article “Jamaicans Urged To Take Flu Seriously As Chikungunya Virus Could Worsen Symptoms”, published Thursday February 12, 2015, by Anastasia Cunningham, The Jamaica Gleaner.

Many Jamaicans, who were infected by the Chikungunya Virus, are still recovering.

Many are still not eating properly and taking Vitamin C supplements and taking the necessary precautions against the spread of the Chikungunya Virus such as rubbing on Citronella Lotion to prevent mosquito bites as noted in my blog article entitled “21 Jamaicans now infected with Chikungunya Virus - DEET and Citronella are Trending Back-to-School Perfumes on the Playground”

As such, their immune System are weakened in a manner similar to what the HIV (Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus) does to the body as described in my blog article entitled “31 infected during Jamaican Chikungunya Virus Epidemic - 113 Deaths in the Caribbean as Jamaica grapples with Chikungunya Virus Outbreak” making them susceptible to other illnesses.

To quote President of the Medical Association of Jamaica, Dr Shane Alexis, it's only gonna get worse now that Flu Season has basically started: “This time of year is well known as the flu season, and with persons travelling from various countries for various reasons, we anticipate new viruses - flu-like viruses - to enter our territory, as well as the fact that persons are still having chik-V-related issues”.

India H1N1 Outbreak death toll reaches 1,731 – Jamaican very susceptible to Influenza

In fact, in our weakened state, the Ministry of Health should be concerned about a possible outbreak of H1N1, a strain of the Influenza Virus more commonly referred to as the Swine flu, which has been ongoing from October 2014.

Since  Friday February 20^th, 2015, the H1N1 Virus has been ravaging India “India Struggles to Contain H1N1 Outbreak as Death Toll Hits 700”, published February 20, 2015 by Adi Narayan, Bloomberg Business.

Some News Agencies in India are estimating, based on reports to the Health Authorities in India, the total number of new cases may have passed a significant milestone as noted in “Swine flu: Toll crosses 1,700; H1N1 cases rise in Delhi”, published Monday, March 16, 2015 - 21:10, ZeeNews.

According to the Union Health Ministry as of Sunday March 15, 2015 since the outbreak began in October 2014:

1.      1,731 people have died in total

2.      29,938 persons have been affected

3.      4,049 New Cases since January 2015

According to the Press Trust of India in the first eight weeks of the New Year up to the week of Sunday February 15^th 2015

1.      11,000 people in total have fallen ill due to H1N1 Virus

2.      703 have died due to infection by H1N1

With our significant Indian Population and possible frequent treks to India and China by Merchants from Jamaica, could it not be possible that what we should also be on the lookout for is a possible outbreak of H1N1 Virus?

I’ll be keeping my ear to the ground as it relate to new on this possibly happening in Jamaica. Every person who sneezes from a cold may in fact be experiencing a more prolonged bout of the flue due to their weakened Immune Systems.