Apple + Android beat Nokia + RIM Globally - Regina Beaver's La Dolce Vita

There is a tide in the affairs of me,

Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune

Shakespeare, Julius Casear, IV, 3

In a previous blog article entitled “RIM Decline and Android Ascendancy - No Country for Old Men” I pointed out that Android was now in pole position in the US smartphone market based on the statistics from analyst Nielsen.

Analyst ComScore soon chirped in with their results that confirmed Nielsen’s results, just around the same time news was in the Tech Circles as it related to Apple’s WWDC (World Wide Developers Conference) slated for Monday June 6^th 2011 to Friday June 10^th 2011AD as stated in my blog article entitled “Apple and the WWDC in June 2011 - Space Above and Beyond Android”.

Gartner confirmed the same results as stated in my blog article entitled “Nokia + Microsoft vs HP WebOS - Gartner's Ocean's Eleven Plan to Rob the Casino”. Gartner took it a bit further, however.

They projected that by the year 2014AD, 50% of all smartphones in the saturated US Market will be Android. While many may wish to say that “anal”-lysts have a penchant for overstating the obvious, I at least like the fact that Gartner decided to even go out on a limb with this one: Microsoft + Nokia rising to 19.5% market share by 2015AD.

As if HP’s baby, WebOS as mentioned in my blog article entitled “HP and the TouchPad - Book of Revelations and the Spy Who Shagged Me” and the Geezam Blog article entitled “HP and WebOS - 2011 is the Year of the Linux on PC”, where I am putting my money for 25% of market share by 2015AD, is chopped liver!

Please note again: all the above statistics and blog articles are for the U.S. Market ONLY! Our closest neighbour! Also, in the above stats, smartphone adoption is based on smartphone Operating Systems (OS).

Mobile Handset makers were not analyzed, as smartphones and feature phones and their respective OS’s are usually not made by the same company e.g. Android is an Open Source OS made by Google. Smartphone Handset makers can download the Android SDK for free and tailor the OS to their phones, with Developer support baked in thanks to the Open Source Nature of Android

Google’s flagship smartphone, the Google Nexus One was made by HTC. Currently the new Google Nexus S hardware is made by Samsung as stated in Kelroy's Geezam Blog article entitled “Google and Samsung introduces the Gingerbread powered Nexus S”.

In some cases, the company makes the OS but designs the Handset to be assembled by a third party smartphone assembler e.g. Apple designs the Apple iPhone and the iOS but the Handset is assembled by problem-plagued Chinese Handset maker FoxxCon as stated in the article “Why Apple and Others are Nervous about FoxConn”, published June 3, 2010, 11:00AM EST by Stephanie Wong, John Liu and Tim Culpan, BusinessWeek – TECHNOLOGY.

Were it to break it down in terms of Mobile Handset Makers in the US Market, it would be mostly dominated by smartphones.

As of the end of the First Quarter of 2011, smartphones accounted for 50% of all phones as stated in the “Verizon iPhone helps U.S become a smartphone Majority”, published April 28, 2011, 6:55am PT by Darrell Etherington, GigaOM based on the numbers from analyst NPD.

Thanks mainly to the Telecom Provider Verizon Apple iPhone 4 of course as chronicled in my blog article entitled “Verizon and the Apple iPhone 4 - The Golden Fleece”.

With Apple in 3^rd place and LG and Samsung holding 1^st and 2^nd place respectively! So says analyst NPD Group.

Thus, the premise of my blog; the prediction of the future based on gadgets and consumer electronics trends among Americans, our closest neighbours, consume, with an adoption time span of approximately two (2) years!

So using the above Data, in the next two years from 2011AD which will be 2013AD, in Jamaica, as is now the case in North America:

1. Google Android OS should be the number one smartphone OS, followed by Apple iOS and Blackberry OS
2. Smartphone penetration should reach 50%
3. LG and Samsung should be the No. 1 and No 2 smartphone Handset makers in Jamaica, followed by Apple at no. 3 position

But some might say my methodology is flawed.

After all, Internationals are not gadget crazy as their American counterparts. Even here in Jamaica, from a purely anecdotal point of view, smartphone penetration is small, mainly restricted to Blackberrys, Nokia “smart”-phones and very few Apple iPhones, the ONLY real deal in town.

Especially as the only GSM (Global Systems Mobile) Telecom Providers offering 3G are Telecom Provider CLARO and Telecom Provider LIME.

Plus smartphones are expensive and Jamaicans see them as flimsy Christmas toys for their children or grandchildren who want PSP but cant afford them. Since the Americans are making these oversized smartphones, they reason, then they are clearly for children, as no adult want a phone so “obnoxiously large”.

Such persons, usually in the age range of Generation X [aged 29 to 45] and Baby Boomers [aged 46 to infinity!] are probably in love with RIM, thinking themselves sophisticated and clever to have and own a Blackberry, when in fact most Americans are chucking them away in favour of those “obnoxiously large” phones!

In a way, they may be right. But only for 2010!

This as Analyst IDC posits that Nokia is still No.1 Globally with twenty four million, two hundred thousand (24,200,000) units or 24.3% of Global Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011.

However, all is not so different among International Markets than American Markets.

Apple ranges in the No. 2 spot Globally, taking over from RIM Blackberry, who previously held the No. 2 spot, with an impressive eighteen million, seven hundred thousand (18,700,000) units or 18.7% of Global Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011. RIM is now in third place with thirteen million nine hundred thousand (13,900,000) units or 14% of Global Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011.

Impressive!

Samsung ranges in at No. 4 with ten million, eight hundred thousand (10,800,000) units or 10.8% of Global Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011. HTC picks up the slack in No. 5 position with eight million, nine hundred thousand (8,900,000) units or 8.9% Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011.

The motley crue of other handset makers make up for the remaining twenty three million two hundred thousand (23,200,000) units or 23.3% % Market share sold in the First Quarter of 2011 in No. 6 position!

But when the First Quarter of 2011 result are compared to First Quarter of 2010, the obvious becomes apparent: even among Internationals, like their tech-obsessed Americans, OS does matter!

Samsung, HTC and the motley crue of smartphone Handset makers at the bottom of the barrel recorded 350%, 229.6% and 143.7% increases respectively on First Quarter of 2011 Global sales when compared to First Quarter of 2010 Global sales.

Mostly likely due to the popularity and low cost nature of Google Android OS which many Handset makers use to lower the cost of smartphones.

Apple did not do too badly, also recording a stellar increase in Global Market share, with a 114.4% increases on First Quarter of 2011 when compared to First Quarter of 2010.

Excellent Touch-centric iOS Platform that connects seamlessly to the Apple Ecosystem of Products, iTunes and a stellar Apple Apps Store make the Apple iPhone shine even in face of the coming Android horde as stated in my Geezam Blog article entitled “Apple iPhone and Google Android - Helms Deep Under Attack” and my blog article entitled “Apple and the WWDC in June 2011 - Space Above and Beyond Android”.

Note here; Handsets, not OS. But eventually by the end of the Fourth Quarter of 2011, even analysts like IDC will have to admit it is all about the OS.

These stats are best perused from the table in the article “Apple closing in on Nokia as smartphone leader”, published May 6, 2011 6:22 AM PDT by Lance Whitney, Apple - CNET News with the article “iPhone gains on Nokia smartphones for Global Crown”, published May 5, 2011 03:52 PM ET by Matt Hamblen, Computerworld ComputerWorld providing support.

To summarize the IDC Stats, it would appear that Nokia + Microsoft and RIM, even on the Global Market ruled by Internationals will soon be overtaken by Apple as has already occurred in the US of A.

This as Nokia + Microsoft and RIM have only recorded 12.6% and 31.1% increases respectively on First Quarter of 2010 when compared to First Quarter of 2011.

But Android is not too far behind, as the stats suggest. Those smartphone Handset makers at the bottom may eventually take over even Apple, powered as they are by Google Android, just in time for London Olympics 2012!!

It seems the Internationals, like Beauty Queen Regina Beavers (Low catcalls!!) of CVM at Sunrise fame on CVM TV, have gotten a taste of La Dolce Vita (1960) and are making up their minds. Again, just in time too, as these “obnoxiously large” smartphones make great portable streaming television sets to watch the London Olympics 2012!

Internationals are already realizing that RIM Blackberry and Nokia Symbian are a bit too plaine et domestiques for their now increasingly Americanized smartphone tastes. So too, will Jamaicans, in another two (2) years from now, Beauty Queen Regina Beavers La Dolce Vita (1960) Style, when smartphoes are de rigeur for London Olympics 2012!