RIM decline and Android Ascendancy - No Country for Old Men

The thing that numbs the heart is this:

That men cannot devise

Some scheme of life to banish fear

That lurks in most men’s eyes.

James Norman Hall, Fear

The alarm bells must be going off now in RIM Corporate offices in Canada after their First Quarter of 2011 Results were made public. Profits yes, but lower than expected, obvious from perusing the article entitled “UPDATE2 - RIM shares dive as outlook signals tough road ahead”, published Friday March 25, 2011 9:27am EDT, Reuters.

An 11% tumble in the value of RIM shares in the future Quarters for the rest of 2011 is serious news. No matter how you spin the bottle or the news, be ye Trader or Wall Street Investment hawk.

The words of one of the Wall Street analysts Susquehana, sums it up best, quote: “Over the next two quarters, RIM's outlook will be heavily dependent on the success of the PlayBook and ramp in new product volumes in second half of fiscal 2012, which we believe will be challenging”.

The smell of fresh carrion approaching the end of each Financial Quarter (March, June, September, and December) is usually expected of other companies. Wall Street Stock traders must decide to keep or buy more of a stock based on end-of-Quarters results for their clients.

Conversely the must also decide whether to ditch, dropping it like a hot potatoes so as to avoid future losses. But supposedly no-one expected this of RIM, makers of the ever-popular Blackberry smartphone!

But there had been signs……..

CNET News Reporter Marguerite Reardon in an article entitled “Is competition finally getting to RIM? “ published April 1, 2010 8:49 AM PDT by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News - Signal Strength at the end of the First Quarter of 2010, reported a similar weakened outlook for RIM. Investors, back then seeing it all as part of the Apple-hype machine surrounding the Apple iPad on Saturday 3^rd April 2010.

It subsequent success, however, made even Wall Street and Telecom Provider CLARO stand up and take notice as noted my blog article entitled “Apple iPad bests the Apple iPhone - CLARO Sales Executives left with mouths agape”.

The success was recently repeated yet again with the successful launch of the Apple iPad 2 on Wednesday March 2^nd 2011 as stated in my blog article entitled “Apple iPad 2 and PC Future - Doomsday in the Battlefield” and as chronicled in my Geezam Blog article entitled “Apple iPad 2 - Dual-Core Easy Skankin'”.

Its successful sale day on Friday March 11^th 2011, however, is fodder for another blog article, so stay tuned.

The Apple iPhone 4 has also debut on Telecom Provider Verizon as chronicled in my blog article entitled “Verizon and the Apple iPhone 4 - The Golden Fleece”.

Sparing readers the long history lesson though, I shall get to the point. RIM has now fallen from grace in the eyes of the smart phone Gods [techies]. In fact, to be more precise, BOTH the Apple iPhone and the RIM Blackberry have fallen from grace, now occupying second place behind Google Android OS in pole position in the US market.

This according to the pundits at Nielsen. They had released their results of a survey of fourteen thousand (14,000) participants between November 10^th 2010 and January 11^th 2011 – which I had passed up hoping for corroboration from a second analyst.

Coincidentally, this is on the same day as the Apple iPad 2 launch as chronicled in a smattering of articles:

1. “Android pulls ahead, while HTC enjoys the ride”, published March 3, 2011, 6:44am PT by Ryan Kim, GigaOM

2. “Android pulls ahead in smartphone Race, Report says”, published March 3, 2011, 6:44 PM By NICK BILTON, NY Times

3. “Nielsen: Android pulls ahead of RIM and iOS for US smartphone share”, published March 3, 2011 by Leena Rao, TechCrunch

4. “Android is No. 1 OS but apple, RIM rule devices”, published March 4, 2011 9:08 AM PST by Lance Whitney, Google Android - CNET News

RIM was holding the pole position as stated in the article “Android tops iPhone in US: Comscore”, Tuesday February 8 2011, AFP, Yahoo News at 31.6% sales in the Fourth Quarter of 2010, down from 37.3% in the Third Quarter of 2010, a spectacular fall from grace of 5.7%.

Interestingly, the Apple iPhone had also seen a dip in popularity, with 24.3% of users polled in the Fourth Quarter of 2010 as opposed to 25%, a dip of 0.7% in the Third Quarter of 2010. Slight, but significant.

I even made note of it in my Geezam Blog article entitled “Apple iPhone and Google Android - Helms Deep Under Attack” and my blog article entitled “Apple iOS 4 vs Google Android - Blackberry Shot the Sheriff”.

Back then Google Android OS was already in pole position in the US market posting percentage numbers of 37.3% in the Fourth Quarter of 2010, an impressive increase of 5.7% over their 31.6% showing in the Third Quarter of 2010. At that time they were already in pole position.

The results herein listed are from the analyst ComScore are chronicle in my blog article entitled “Apple iOS 4 vs Google Android - Blackberry Shot the Sheriff”.

What can RIM do against the coming horde? The article that got me typing away on my steampunk computer entitled “UPDATE2 - RIM shares dive as outlook signals tough road ahead”, published Friday March 25, 2011 9:27am EDT, Reuters indicates that the expected dip in profitability is because RIM is focusing on the future.

This means that they are going back to their roots, like Motorola has done (based on my suggestions of course!) and come out of bankruptcy as stated in my Geezam Blog article entitled “Motorola and the Xoom - The Empire Strikes Back” and my blog article entitled “Motorola, RIM and the Tablet - Indiana Jones and the Palace of doom”.

To wit:

1. Research and Development of the QNX OS to replace their less than stellar Blackberry OS 6.0 refresh, as this is serious, folks! Would recommend the suggestions in my blog article entitled “Is the Writing now on the Wall for RIM Blackberry”.

2. For Sales and Marketing, a cue can be taken from a modification of Telecom Provider AT&T’s ShopAlerts as stated in my blog article entitled “RIM, Telecom Providers and the Rise of Mobile Commerce - Free Willy Blackberry” and my Geezam Blog article AT&T ShopAlerts and BB for Everyone

3. For ensuring success of the QNX OS powered RIM Playbook, despite the bleak forecast based on its power issues as stated in my blog article entitled “RIM and the PlayBook - Blade II”, please read Geezam Blog article entitled “RIM PlayBook and Jamaica - Les French Conneccion Internacional”.

The last idea of a simultaneous worldwide launch should be coupled with heavy developer evangelism, as porting non-native Android apps to the QNX OS will not solve the short term lack of apps on the Platform as opined in the article “Blackberry's PlayBook tablet may face uphill battle”, published March 28, 2011 2:42 p.m. EDT By Amy Gahran, CNN Tech.

However, I disagree with Amy Gahran of CNN’s opinion on the tethering via Bluetooth, as this establishes the market as Business users from the get-go, being as most of their customer base is Enterprise users. RIM is building on their strength via this strategy. However, I would recommend future Blackberry’s getting WiGiG protocol for faster speed tethering in future updates.

It  is an elegantly simple idea to shore up revenues Internationally as research into Tablets and newer smartphone designs continues for the now almost saturated and one-less-Telecom-Provider American market as opined in my blog article entitled “AT&T buys T-Mobile - Prince of Persia in A Series of Unfortunate Events”.

Especially as the outdated technology of RIM should be an indication to them that there is No Country for Old Men (2007).