My Thoughts on Technology and Jamaica: Telecom Providers and Data - Verizon gets their wish

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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Telecom Providers and Data - Verizon gets their wish

Go and catch a falling star,
Get with child a mandrake root,
Tell me, where all past years are,
Or who cleft the Devil’s foot

John Donne, Song

It is now becoming abundantly clear that someone is not telling the truth about their Data usage. Telecom Provider AT&T, which touted itself as being under pressure ever since their record breaking sale of the Apple iPhone 3GS in July 2009 AD as stated in the article “AT&T breaks sales records with iPhone 3GS launch”, published July 2, 2009 1:12 PM PDT by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News - Signal Strength.

They were oversubscribed to the hilt and they knew it. Faced with heavy losses in POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service), the welcome boost of 1.2 million customers in the Second Quarter of 2009, a 29% boost over the corresponding Second Quarter in 2008 on the face of losses of 921,000 POTS customers!

All due to Apple magical Apple iPhone 3GS! Despite the huge US$300 subsidy they had to endure to make the device affordable to the masses as opposed to the very first Apple iPhone launched in 2007, it appears well worth it as stated in the article “iPhone buoys AT&T subscriptions - but hurts profit”, published July 23, 2009 7:34 AM PDT, by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News – Wireless.

Telecom Provider AT&T saw their profit drop by 15% for that Second Quarter of 2009 from a high of US$3.77 billion in the Second Quarter of 2008 to US$3.2 billion in the Second Quarter of 2009 even on the back of a gain of 2.4 million (2,400,000) Apple iPhone 3GS. But the clincher was the mass adoption of Telecom Provider AT&T’s all-you-can-eat US$30 Data Plan. That is where it all began to fall apart.

Suddenly, the blessing windfall became a curse, as Telecom Provider AT&T began to face increases in Data traffic due to the very same Apple iPhone users, effectively 3% of users using up 40% of the Data Network Resources on their Network in the delightful narrative by Ralph De La Vega, Head of AT&T Wireless as stated in the article “AT&T considers incentives to curb heavy Data usage”, published December 9, 2009 3:08 PM PST by Marguerite Reardon CNET News - Signal Strength.

Statements which are pointless, as common sense based on anecdotal information speak to an increasing insatiable demand for Data at higher and faster speeds. All due to the Apple iPhone Effect in 2007, ironically its API originally based on my suggestions in 2003. Who would have thought it would become so big?

Then Cisco made a startling revelation. They predicted a wireless explosion that would culminate in a Data traffic rate of 3.6 exabytes per month by 2014 (that is the year before Peak Oil!) or a yearly increase of 40 exabytes, representing a thirty nine (39) times increase on Data rates in 2009, effectively a yearly compound increase of 108% per annum as predicted in the article “Cisco predicts wireless-Data explosion”, published February 9, 2010 5:00 AM PST by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News - Signal Strength.

John Public is not sure if this is a Moore’s Law for Data Usage globally, but if Telecom Provider AT&T experiences are anything to go by, then the plans of the Telecom Providers to upgrade their backhaul need to be SERIOUSLY accelerated not just to meet the demand of the current 3G and 4G Network build-outs as stated in the article “Wireless operators accelerate upgrade plans”, published January 26, 2010 4:00 AM PST by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News - Signal Strength.

Telecom Provider AT&T eventually announced Data Plans on Wednesday 2nd 2010 AD, which was considered a major shift for a Telecoms Provider and a date that will live in infamy in the minds of many.

It signaled a return to capped, cheaper Data Plans.  Telecom Provider AT&T’s had two (2) plans:

1.      DataPlus Data Plan which has a 200MB cap and charges US$15 per thirty (30) day billing cycle with an overage charge of US$10 per additional 200 MB
2.      DataPro Data Plan which has a 2GB cap and charges US$25 per thirty (30) day billing cycle with an overage charge of US$15 per additional 1GB

This as stated in the article “For New AT&T users, no more "all you can eat" Data”, published June 2 2010 By PETER SVENSSON, AP Technology Writer, Yahoo News were launched, all of which are changes that local Telecom Providers in Jamaica, specifically the Big Three (3) Digicel, LIME and CLARO have implemented, with the exception of advising customers of approaching their Data Cap, a rather disingenuous situation which is deserving of complaint. 

Now it appears to be Telecom Provider Verizon’s turn at figuring out why the Devil has a cleft foot [a sign of lying]. Telecom Provider Verizon is now seeing an exponential increase in its Data usage as well as stated in the article “Verizon users outpace iPhone users in Data” published July 29, 2010 4:00 AM PDT by Marguerite Reardon, CNET News - Signal Strength.

Validas, a phone bill analyst that made this observation, has one if its principal spokespersons Finegold put it in context: “The iPhone makes much more of a lifestyle and social statement than an Android phone makes.

People interested in an Android are looking for horsepower.” Thus Telecom Provider Verizon, in getting its wish to have a phone that is on the same level as the Apple iPhone 4.0 in terms of popularity but with a mean streak and a penchant for attracting Data hogs, even though Telecom Provider Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg pleaded to have the Apple iPhone 4.0 on their Network as stated in the article “Verizon CEO has told Apple of iPhone interest”, published Tuesday April 6, 10:28 am ET, Yahoo News.

This was later confirmed to be possibly coming in January 2011 by none other than BloomBerg as stated in the article “Bloomberg: Verizon iPhone coming in January?”, published June 29, 2010 1:17 PM PDT by Marguerite Reardon CNET News - Signal Strength.

Telecom Provider Verizon even began testing Apple iPads at least according to BGR (Boy Genius Report) usually reliable confidential informant as stated in the article “Verizon testing iPads?”, published June 2, 2010 2:30 PM PDT by Erica Ogg, CNET News - Circuit Breaker.

This stands in stark contrast to their advertising attacks on the Apple iPhone 4.0 and its perceived shortcomings as it relates to its antenna as stated in the article “New Droid X ad laughs at Apple's bumpers”, published July 28, 2010 11:20 PM PDT by Chris Matyszczyk, CNET News - Technically Incorrect.

Ironic, since it is all this media attention that is driving the phenomenal sales of Apple latest toys,  and thus the heavier than expected demand affecting both the Apple iPhone and the Apple iPad since Apple debut the Apple iPad on the weekend of Saturday April 3rd and Sunday April 4th 2010 AD. Then the Apple iPhone 4 on Thursday June 24th 2010 AD and Tuesday June 29th 2010 AD!

Thus the resulting component shortage of 2010 as stated in the article “White iPhone 4 faces manufacturing woes; iPad too”, published Friday July 24 2010 by  Ben Patterson, Technology Writer, Yahoo News and confirmed by the article “LG overwhelmed by iPad display orders”, published by July 23, 2010 9:56 AM PDT by Erica Ogg, CNET News - Circuit Breaker, selling at a rate of nearly one million (1,000,000) units per week.

This unexpected windfall for Telecom Provider Verizon is a follow-on from the recent report of larger than normal sales of the other Apple iPhone Killer aside from the now famous Blackberry 9800 Torch, that being the Motorola Droid X, which is spurring their success and is possibly behind the huge increase in Data Usage on Telecom Provider Verizon’s Network as stated in the article “Verizon signs up more new subscriber than AT&T”, published July 23, 2010 1:48 PM PDT by Erica Ogg, CNET News - Circuit Breaker.

Telecom Provider Verizon announced no plans to go the tiered route, but this is inevitable. Thus in light of the similar scenario now about to play out on Telecom Provider Verizon Network, it is being highly recommended that Telecom Provider start considering Fiber optic for all of its backhaul, as they have yet to see the end of this upsurge in Data Usage, addictive as it is like crack, the Devil be damned.
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