Some
interesting new statistics have come to light from the recently released OUR
statistics for the April to June 2011AD period otherwise referred to as the
Second Quarter of 2011AD as reported in “Internet
income up 138% as ... Telecoms revenue hits $14b mark”,
published Wednesday September 19, 2012, The Jamaica Gleaner.
JA$14
billion in profits with Prepaid Mobile, Postpaid Mobile, Internet (Wired and
Wireless), SMS and Fixed Line Mobile and Landline all showing increases in
profits and declines in Subscriber base, an indicating of increased usage
traffic from fewer subscribers for these Services. And as you read on, it’s
mostly driven by disparities in usage of Telecom Provider Services between Millennials (ages 18 to 28) and Generation X (ages 29
to 45).
The
last time they came out I did a blog
article entitled “OUR
Records Voice Decline for the Fourth Quarter of 2010 - Postpaid, Data Services
and Fixed Line Mobile and Landline Saturday Night Fever for Telecom Providers”
and made the observation that Data
Services, Postpaid and Fixed Line Mobile and Landline
were the new rising stars for the Telecoms Sector.
That
article was based on OUR statistics for the Fourth Quarter of 2010AD. These recently
released stats have been Gal a Bubble, Konshens Style on my front burner, as I
took the time to analyze them in detail. So far, the news is good for Data Services, Postpaid and Fixed Line Mobile
and Landline, but Voice is in a freefall.
So
straight to it lads! The OUR statistics parlay the increases or declines when the
Second Quarter of 2011AD is compared to the corresponding Second Quarter of
2010AD:
Financial News
1. 13%
increase in profits which translates to $14 billion
2. Mobile
Voice Services declined 2.3% to $8.79 billion
3. Fixed-line
revenues increased 36% to $3.5 billion when compared to the
4. Internet
Services, both wired and Warless increased 138% to $1.6 billion
5. APRU
remained unchanged at $2,647 per user
Prepaid and Postpaid
1. 3%
decline in Prepaid subscriptions from the three million (3,000,000) subscribers
in active usage
2. 4%
decline in Prepaid customers subscriptions to 2.8 million (2,800,000)
subscribers
3. 41%
increase in Post-paid customers subscriptions to 146,000 subscribers
4. 32%
increase in SMS (Short message Service) or Test messaging increased to $1.1
billion
International Calling
1. 1,328%
increase in International call minutes
to 1.3 billion, the main reason for the fixed Line Revenue increase
Internet
1. 2.2% decline in Internet subscribers to 117,800
Fixed Line
1. 7.6%
decline in Fixed Line subscribers decreased to approximately 278,800
As
was the case last time I did a statistical review, albeit basic, there's lots
of missing Data, as it seems the Telecom Providers are less than forthcoming,
to quote the OUR: “The submission of Internet-related Data trailed that for Mobile
and fixed-line Services, and as such, information necessary for a thorough assessment
for this section continues to be lacking”.
The
above statistics confirms what I had long suspected; Telecom Providers are
making more money from Prepaid Mobile, Postpaid Mobile, Internet (Wired and
Wireless), SMS and Fixed Line Mobile and Landline despite declines in the
number of active subscribers in these Sections of their Businesses. Jamaicans
are becoming more active users of these Services, thanks mainly to increased
promotions in that period that is usually the Start of Summer Time and loads of
Partying, outings and arrangements for Travel abroad and requests for
Remittances.
However,
there has been an explanation at least, for the increase in Fixed Line usage;
International Calling via International Calling Plans as described in my Geezam blog
article entitled “How
to set up an International Calling Plan for Digicel or LIME Prepaid and
Postpaid”, quote: “International calls generated the most
revenue during the review quarter. Notwithstanding what the usage (above) would
suggest, it was incoming international calls, rather than outgoing, that
contributed most to revenue uptake, with revenue from incoming international
calls amounting to $1.6 billion”.
This
fits with my idea that Fixed Line Mobile and Landline's increasing Call
Revenues were based on an increase in the number of Jamaicans, Generation X (ages 29 to 45) beginning to settle into
the second more comfortable phase of their lives and wanting hassle-free Mobile
phone alternatives to constantly topping up a Prepaid phone.
Hence
the reason why FLOW's Michelle English was up in arms about Telecom Provider LIME’s unfair Cross
Network Termination Rates for their Triple-Play
Landline Network Service as noted in my
blog article entitled “Flow
at odds with over Cross-Network rates for Fixed Line - Total Recall of the
coming Importance of Triple Play Services”, as this was slowly
becoming an increasingly important revenue stream for the Triple Play Provider
as more Generation X (ages 29 to 45) become
more settled.
The
same logic also applies to Postpaid Subscriber increase and Prepaid Subscriber
decline in the Second Quarter of 2011AD, as these statistics are before the
drop in Mobile rates on Sunday July 15th 2012AD date as noted in my
blog article entitled “LIME's
new TALK EZ Plan drops Cross Network Calling to JA$2.99 - Digicel's Game of
Thrones vs LIME Return of the King” and my Geezam
blog article entitled “LIME
drops Cross Network Calling Rate to JA$6.99 to kick off a 3 year Battle for
Mobile Market Dominance”.
Jamaicans,
specifically Generation X (ages 29 to 45), want
more comfort as they grow older and are willing to pay for Postpaid and Fixed
Line Services and associated Triple Play Services. As such, they are chucking
away their Prepaid Mobile phones back then in the Second Quarter of 2011AD,
opting instead to have Postpaid Services and Fixed Line Mobile and Landline,
which they appear to mainly use for International Calling.
The
incredible increase in Internet usage is unexplained in the OUR’s Report, save
that it must be mostly Mobile Internet Subscriptions such as Blackberry Mobile
Phones, EDGE capable Feature phone and other smartphones that people smuggle
into the island instead of buying stock Mobile phones from Telecom Providers.
Note
that this was back then in the Second Quarter of 2011AD; CLARO 3G was all the
rage, so people were getting hooked to from them on the idea of Mobile
Broadband Internet. This trend shift towards smartphones or at least their
predecessors was driven mostly by a more youthful set, the Millennials (ages 18
to 28). The time of CLARO’s reign in Jamaica, it seems, has propelled Mobile
Wireless Broadband to the forefront to the point where we are now.
Those
same Millennials (ages 18 to 28), now three (3) years on in 2012AD are now opting for full blown smartphones as their
second phone purchase as stated in my
blog article entitled
“Blackberry
popularity wanes as Jamaicans go smartphones - Android and Apple's Smartphone
Revolution” and the Geezam
blog
article entitled “Apple
iPhone boosts Jamaican smartphone usage as BB goes Chapter 11 Bankruptcy”.
This after having gotten a taste of CLARO 3G and the competing Telecom
Providers upgrading their Telecom Networks with faster Wireless Broadband to
meet the coming demand.
Millennials
(ages 18 to 28), the very same group
with which I mostly interact on the SHARP Account, proud makers and suppliers
of the 4” screens for the Apple iPhone 5 and possibly 5” screens for the Apple
iPhone 6 as prognosticated in my
blog article entitled
“SHARP
and JDI making 5-inch 1080p Smartphone Screens - Here Comes the Boom as 1080p
Screens, Quad-Core the next Big Thing for Apple iPhone”
To
this day, my fellow Millennial (ages 18 to 28) co-workers are most unrepentant
with their blatant usage of BB’s on the Production floors of SHARP and
Panasonic, despite user UE (User Equiptment) being Banned. Still, their target
Market demographic is in the crosshairs of the Telecom Providers. Millennials (ages 18 to 28) are the main group
driving the transition to smartphones as surmised in my
blog article entitled
“Blackberry
popularity wanes as Jamaicans go smartphones - Android and Apple's Smartphone
Revolution” and the Geezam
blog
article entitled “Apple
iPhone boosts Jamaican smartphone usage as BB goes Chapter 11 Bankruptcy”.
Now
with the rates down, I’m hoping that, despite the need to not give the
competition a heads-up, the OUR could at least coerce the Telecom Providers to
disclose results for the Quarters before Sunday July 15th 2012AD and
the Quarters after in early 2013AD. This is for purely academic research as it
would help to provide a basis for a comparison to see the true benefits of the
lower Calling Rates to Telecom Providers GSM Voice Services, Customers and
Subscribers.
This
as I suspect that the Telecom Provider may be seeing significant revenue
increases in Voice Services despite the decline in the On –Net and Cross
Network rates due to a substantial increase in calling Volume. It would thus prove
once and for all my hypothesis that decreasing the Cross Network Calling Rates increases
Voice Traffic and thus revenues, with Telecom Providers merely having to upgrade
their GSM Voice Network in terms of T1 Capacity and Cell Sites to handle the
increased Traffic on the Voice Network.
Also
required would be a breakdown of the Mobile Phone ownership i.e. Types of
phones in usage as well as breakdown for the Internet Services, based on the
various Services on offer in Jamaica, as I suspect Wireless or Mobile Internet
is seeing an increase. Statistics on Mobile TV and IPTV Streaming Services
would also be good, being as these devices are Telecoms Networks and albeit
falling under the ambit of Broadcasting, the lines are beginning to blur,
making the OUR reporting of such statistics necessary.
Already
there are early signs that the Telecom Providers are anticipating this increase
in Voice Traffic on their GSM (Global System Mobile) Voice Networks. Telecom
Provider LIME
has already declared that they are seeing this on their Network, with a 71%
increase in revenues for the Second Quarter of
2012AD when compared to the Second Quarter of 2011AD as stated in my
blog article entitled “LIME reports Voice Traffic up 71% in Second Quarter of 2012AD
- ACS-Xerox loses contract to TELUS International as LIME becomes Mavado Money
Changer”.
Both Telecom Provider Digicel and Telecom Provider LIME
are looking towards a future when GSM Voice Services will be extinct. Telecom
Provider Digicel and Telecom Provider LIME
in partnership with Avaya Communications are launching Avaya Aura with the
intention to increase Mobile Broadband Internet usage on smartphones among SME
(Small and Medium Enterprises).
The eventually aim is to make GSM Voice Services extinct by
2015AD as stated in my
blog article entitled “Digicel
and Avaya Communications launch Avaya Aura for SME's - LIME and Digicel in a
Step Up Revolution towards GSM Voice Extinction”.
Video Calling via Avaya Scopia for SME’s, another piece of
tech recently acquired by Avaya Communications as reported in the article “Avaya's Scopia will save on trips”, published Friday, September 21, 2012 BY NEKIESHA REID
Business reporter, The Jamaica Observer, will
ironically gain more traction among the Millennials (ages 18 to 28) before the
Generation X (ages 29 to 45) see the point of Video Calling. This as predicted
in my
blog article entitled
“Skype's
Ads on Free VoIP heralds coming of Free Mobile VoIP - Video Calls not problem
as LIME LTE soon tun up”.
I suspect this is mainly because most Generation X (ages 29
to 45) are Blackberry users, as opposed the younger Millennials (ages 18 to
28), who are driving the transition to smartphones such as the Samsung Galaxy
SIII and the Apple iPhone 4S as surmised in my
blog article entitled
“Blackberry
popularity wanes as Jamaicans go smartphones - Android and Apple's Smartphone
Revolution” and the Geezam
blog
article entitled “Apple
iPhone boosts Jamaican smartphone usage as BB goes Chapter 11 Bankruptcy”.
Plus, many of the more settled Generation X (ages 29 to 45)
like traveling abroad and albeit Senior Management in most companies,(aged 45
to 90) like to save money via Teleconferencing and Tele-Video Technologies, the
Middle Management, mostly Generation X (ages 29 to 45), are non-too-crazy about
losing the access to the jet set lifestyle of travelling abroad on their
company’s tab. Hence the resistance!
So in summary, it appears that the increases in the Prepaid
Mobile, Postpaid Mobile, Internet (Wired and Wireless), SMS and Fixed Line
Mobile and Landline in the Second Quarter of 2011AD can be attributed to the
shifting tastes of Millennials (ages 18 to 28)
and Generation X (ages 29 to 45) as Telecom Providers are Stacking
up All Faces – Mavado style. This as Wireless
Mobile Broadband and Blacbkerry usage was becoming the new thing for the “In
Crowd” among Millennials (ages 18 to 28) in the Second Quarter of 2011AD.
Meanwhile Generation X (ages 29 to 45) was getting hooked on
Prepaid Services such as Postpaid Mobile and Fixed Line
Mobile and Landline for International Calling to make the coming retirement
more comfortable. All slowly becoming the new Argo
(2012) for growth in an already saturated
Prepaid Voice Telecoms Market powered by GSM Voice Services that’s already
showing signs of slowly going extinct in 2012AD!
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