“Growing
electricity demand for air conditioning is one of the most critical blind spots
in today’s energy debate. With rising incomes, air conditioner ownership will
skyrocket, especially in the emerging world. While this will bring extra
comfort and improve daily lives, it is essential that efficiency performance
for ACs be prioritized. Standards for the bulk of these new ACs are much lower
than where they should be.”
Director of the IEA.,
Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive, commenting on their report The Future of cooling
- Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning
The
Earth is getting hotter due to Global Warming. So the demand for cooling is
going to skyrocket.
So
says the IEA (International Energy Agency) who are predicting that by 2050,
global energy demand for air conditioners is expected to triple as reported in
the article “Air
conditioning use emerges as one of the key drivers of global electricity-demand
growth”, published 15 May 2018, IEA.
Their
report, titled “The Future of cooling -
Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning” projects that by 2050,
there will be 5.6 billion air conditioners in buildings. This is more than the
current 1.6 billion today, of which 50% are in China and the United States.
In
practical terms, that 5.6 billion air conditioners translates to 10 new ACs
sold every second for the next 30 years, as pointed out in their IEA YouTube
video.
So
what implications does this have for our modern way of life?
The Future of cooling -
IEA AC prediction tempered by the rise in Solar PV Power
On
way to look at this is in terms of the demand for energy these power hungry
devices will bring.
This
is not new really as Dr. Michael Taylor, Climatologist and Head of the
Department of Physics, Pure and Applied Sciences, University of the West Indies
has been pointing this out for some time as noted in my blog article
entitled “Dr.
Taylor's states Global Warming increasing Jamaica's Energy Bill - Vybz Kartel's
Summertime Soylent Green”.
The
current stock of air conditioners and electric fans use 10% of all global
electricity consumption today. As more Jamaicans and other people living in
countries lost to the Equator and in the Temperate zones “step up inna life”,
they'll begin to spend more on air conditioners and fans.
AC
use is expected to be the second-largest source of global electricity demand
growth. It'll trail the industry sector, and the strongest driver for buildings
by 2050.
Interestingly,
by 2050, the IEA also predict that Solar PV (Photovoltaics) may beat out coal
in terms of providing electricity to supply all this rising demand for energy
as explained in my blog article
entitled “IEA
says Solar PV is fastest growing Energy source while Jamaica is adopting LNG”.
In
fact, they predict that global renewable electricity capacity to rise by more
than 920 gigawatts, or 44%, by 2022. So with enough power to supply all global
demand coming from Renewable resources, why the need for conservation?
Global Warming and AC -
Photovotaics cannot handle increase in AC Power Demand
Supplying
power to these ACs comes with large costs and environmental implications. The
report identifies key policy actions.
In
an Efficient Cooling Scenario, which is compatible with the goals of the Paris
Agreement, the IEA finds that through stringent minimum energy performance
standards and other measures such as labelling, the average energy efficiency
of the stock of ACs worldwide could more than double between now and 2050.
This would greatly reduce the need to build new electricity infrastructure to meet rising demand.
Making
cooling more efficient would have multiple benefits such as:
1. Making
energy more affordable
2. Making
Energy more secure
3. Making
Energy more sustainable
4. Saving
US$2.9 trillion in investment, fuel and operating costs
The
stats are also against increasing energy capacity just to meeting cooling:
1. 90%
of households have air conditioning in the United States and Japan
2. 8%
of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest parts of the world have air
conditioning
That
is less than 30% of hired of global households owning an air conditioner. Such
a sharp increase among households in AC usage could see electricity loads on power
grids spike as much as 45% in 2050.
Surprisingly,
the rise in Solar PV cannot meet that demand, as electricity well also be
needed to power everything else from the Internet to Electric Vehicles, which
Developing World households are sure to want as predicted in my blog article
entitled “Why
JUTC going Hybrid indicates removal of 60% import duty on Electric Vehicles”.
ACs sold in Japan and the European Union are
typically 25% more efficient than those sold in the United States and China.
Efficiency improvements could reduce this future energy monster.
Mandatory
energy performance standards will have to be used to force manufacturers to
make more energy efficient AC, such as the Samsung Wind-Free Air Conditioners
as explained in my Geezam blog article entitled “Samsung Wind-Free Air Conditioners is Cooling without the Breeze”.
Samsung’s
AC's use R32, an environmentally-friendly refrigerant alternative, to keep in
line with the strengthened environmental regulations in Europe! When compared
with the standard R410A refrigerant, R32 has only one-third of its global
warming potential (GWP) and is characterized by its high-efficiency even in
lower quantities.
So
what if all AC’s became energy Efficient? Would that stem the rising demand in
AC?
Mandatory Energy
Efficient AC Standards - The Quest for Solar Powered Air Conditioners
Short
answer is no, as the IEA is wrong. The demand for electricity is going to grow
faster than expected, as Fans may be the go-to device for cooling rather than
AC.
Instead
I predict the rise in AC usage will be in motor vehicles. Motor vehicle AC,
which are not included in this report, will have an impact on motor vehicle
fuel economy. This translates to increased demand in electricity, as electric
generation will have to increase when Electric Vehicle becomes more mainstream.
One
simple way to make Air conditioners more efficient, be they for households or
for motor vehicles, is to simply not connect them to the grid.
A
law needs to be passed in third world countries such as Jamaica so that once
any AC is being sold, it must be sold with its own Solar or Wind Based power
source or even some type of Hydrogen fuel cell such as the one described in my blog article
entitled “Intelligent
Energy Hydrogen Fuel Cell for Apple - How Hydrogen can give Apple products
weeks of battery life by 2017”
This
so that the device doesn't have to be tied to grid power – and yes, it is
possible to power AC's using Solar Power as this video indicates.
Director
of the IEA., Dr Fatih Birol, points out that by making AC more efficient, we
reduce the need for new sources of power to fuel our cooling passion, quote:
“Setting higher efficiency standards for cooling is one of the easiest steps
governments can take to reduce the need for new power plants, and allow them at
the same time to cut emissions and reduce costs”.
This
will leave more of that new Renewable Energy capacity to fuel Electric Vehicles
and do other things besides keeping our houses and cars cool.
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