Folks,
it's now the Fourth Quarter of 2014 and Tablets appear to be in a freefall!
Analyst
Gartner is predicting a slowdown in Tablet sales for the entire 2014 when
compared to 2013 as stated in the article “Tablet
sales growth to tap the brakes this year, says Gartner”, published October
15, 2014 6:29 AM PDT by Lance Whitney, CNET News.
According
to their Press Release as stated in “Gartner Says Sales of Tablets
Will Represent Less Than 10 Percent of All Devices in 2014”, published
October 15, 2014, Gartner, they're projecting
the following:
1. 229
million units in 2014
2. 11%
increase in Tablet sales from 2013
3. 9.5%
of total worldwide sales of devices
By
comparison, 2013 was a robust growth year for Tablets, which grew by some 55%.
Clearly a slowdown in Tablet Sales in progress as I’d predicted in my blog article
entitled “IDC
and NPD Group record Tablet Decline and Phablet Rise - “White Box” Chinese Tablets
and Wearable Computing in First Quarter of 2014 making Tablets obsolete in the
Year of the Sheep” .
Tablet Sales Growth
slowing – 3 Year lifespan a crossing of the PC Market and smartphones
As
predicted earlier in 2014 based on First Quarter Sales for 2014, the downward
trend in Tablets was due to the cheaper Chinese so-called “White-Label” Generic
Tablets, which many companies in the US of A may be ordering and customizing
instead of buying premium Brand Tablets.
The
Table makes it clear that the growth areas are in smartphones, mobile phones
and hybrid devices. Analyst Gartner also projects that Americans are waiting
longer before upgrading their Tablets, resulting in a lot less Tablets being
purchased than projected each year, often as long as three (3) years.
Tablets
aren't sold with a 2 -year contract like smartphones. So there is no pressure
in Developing World countries to buy a new Tablet every two (2) years as many
opt to buy the Wi-Fi only models and not the Wi-Fi and 3G/4G LTE Models.
By
2018, Gartner predicts the following:
1. 90
million fewer new Tablet purchasers
2. 155
million fewer Tablet replacements
Analyst
IDC also put out Stats Projections that seem to confirm Gartner''s Projections
for 2014 as reported in the article “IDC:
Tough year for Tablets, not as bad as thought for PCs”, published November
25, 2014 11:48 AM PST by Edward Moyer, CNET News:
1. 7.2%
Growth in Tablet shipments compared to 52.5% Growth in Tablet shipments in 2013
2. 235.7
million units to be shipped Worldwide in 2014
Breaking
down IDC's stats, the marketshare for the major Operating Systems works out as
follows:
1. 67.7%
for Google Android Tablets
2. 27.5%
for Apple iOS Tablets
3. 4.6%
for Windows Tablets
Table
Sales are slowing. But nowhere is the slowdown more dramatic than Apple. The inventor
of the Tablet back in 2010 now relegated to Second Place after ceding Pole Position
to the horde of Android Tablet.
Apple iPad Sales are
falling – Incremental Apple iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 3 Fail to impress
With
only a few incremental changes in the Tablet market that Apple basically invented,
such as the Touch ID for the Apple iPad Air 2 and the Apple iPad Mini 3, many Americans
and Europeans see no reason to buy a new Tablet.
Apple has claimed that Apple iPad sales are down by 14% as reported in the article “Apple's role reversal: 'Mature' Mac outpaces iPad in revenue”, published October 20, 2014 2:28 PM PDT by Ben Fox Rubin and Shara Tibken, CNET News so these stats corroborate what the analysts are claiming.
The
reasoning is also the same as well; slowing sales due to consumers holding on
to their Apple iPads longer as noted in the article “Apple’s
iPad sales are not so magical after all”, published April 24, 2014 6:06 PM PDT by Shara Tibken, CNET News.
Even
when they do, they're face with dozens of inexpensive Google Android “White
Label” Tablets, prompting them to hold on to their Tablets a lot longer, often
handing them down to their children whenever they upgrade.
Consequently,
the Tablet Market, at least from Apple’s point of view, behaves like a cross
between the Smartphone and the PC Market. Apple iPads, once the Golden children
of Apple heart, has fallen out of favour, with even sales of Apple Macbooks
outpacing the Apple iPad.
Tablets fall,
smartphones rise - Developing World bonanza for sub-US$199 smartphones
While
Tablets appears to heading for a bust, it's boom time for smartphones. Overall
the market for Google android smartphones is expected to grow their marketshare
by some 47% in 2014. To give you an idea of Gartner's prediction for sales, a
quick perusal of their projections should set you straight.
In
terms of sales, that translates to an increase in the Sales of Google Android smartphones in the Developing
World are expected to grow as follows in 2014:
1.
52% for midrange Android Devices
2.
100% for Chinese branded smartphones
Replacements
are not a problem, being as the cheaper units are easier to replace than a more
expensive Tablet:
1. 71%
in 2014, an increase of 17 percentage points from 2013
So
smartphone, particularly in the Developing World, is looking bright for 2015,
Year of the sheep. But what of the fortunes of the humble PC and Laptop Market?
Not so good I’m afraid…..
Chromebooks growing in
U.S. K-12 Schools – 2017 will see Triple Growth to 1% Marketshare
The
Tablet Market is faring a lot better than the PC market, which is in steady
decline albeit according to analyst NPD, there was a brief spike in PC sales
during the Back to School Season in the US of A which starts in August 2014 to
September 2014 as reported in my blog article entitled
“NPD
Group Stats say PC’s up 3% - Why ACSI says American prefer PC's as the Price is
Right for the Return of the Mac”.
The
PC Market has been in a freefall and the predictions of analyst IDC are no
different from Gartner, albeit slightly more positive. They're projecting a
2.7% decline, compared to 3.7% last year 2013. This puts total shipments for
PC's at around 306.7 million units, matching somewhat with Gartner's
projections.
Right
now the only area of growth in the PC Industry is in Chromebooks which
according to stats from the IDC are making headway in the U.S. K-12 School
System as noted in my blog article
entitled “IDC
Stats say Google Chromebooks dominates U.S. K-12 School System - 1 TB Free
Google Drive as Microsoft HP Stream and 12.9-inch Apple iPad in 2015”.
Analyst
Gartner also expects Chromebook shipments to triple by year 2017, boosting the
Asian-dominated Chromebook market to 1% as noted in my blog article
entitled “Chromebooks
Sales to Triple by 2017 – How Rapid Sales Heaven for PC Makers means Apple iPad
and Microsoft Surface Pro 3 under attack”.
Chromebooks
may result in a U.S. PC Makers finally deciding to full commit to Chromebooks alongside
their Asian Partners. Already Dell has a the US$160 7-inch Dell Venue 7 and
US$200 8-inch Dell Venue 8 as detailed in my blog article
entitled “US$160
7-inch Dell Venue 7 and US$200 8-inch Dell Venue 8 - Pure Android 4.4 KitKat Tablet
in Red and Black”, so making Chromebooks isn't much of a stretch for them.
Smartphones
are the growth engines for PC makers who’ve switched to making them with the Tablet
Market showing the same susceptibilities as the PC Market. So expect an
increasing reliance on smartphones and the production of more Chromebook PC's
and Laptops to augment the falling sales of PC's and Laptops in 2015 and
beyond.
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