“We
continue to view the Apple Watch as a potential door opener for wearable
technology across the board, as this next paradigm shift is likely set to take
place across the consumer/enterprise landscape”
FBR & Co. analyst
Daniel Ives commenting on sales of the Apple Watch in Investor Notes November
2015
The
Apple Watch was a smashing success in 2015!
So
says FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives who says Apple may have sold some 12
million Apple Watches as reported in the article “Analyst
doubles Apple Watch sales prediction to 12 million sold in 2015”, published
November 30, 2015 by Julian Chokkattu, Digitaltrends.
To
be specific, he's predicted the following:
1.
6 million in the Fourth Quarter of 2015
2.
12 million overall for all of 2015
These
numbers seem in line with analyst Canalys figure of 7 million for the Third
Quarter of 2015 that they presented on Wednesday November 4th 2015 as reported
in my blog
article entitled “7
million Apple Watch sold in Q3 2015 - Why Samsung, Asus, Huawei, LG and
Motorola smartwatches need longer battery life”.
It
also fits with my prediction for Apple to dominate the Wearable segment by the
Fourth Quarter of 2015 as noted in my blog article
entitled “IDC
Stats for Wearables in the First Quarter of 2015 - US$13 Mi Band Fitness
Monitor @Xiaomi No. 2 as Apple Watch to dominate Smartwatch segment by Q4 2015”.
At
12 million that more than the 11.4 million wearable devices were shipped
worldwide in the First Quarter of 2015 based on stats from Research Manager for
IDC Wearables, Ramon Llamas.
This is more than Fitbit, Xiaomi, Garmin and Jawbone combined!
His
evidence is somewhat flimsy; he uses anecdotal evidence as well as contacts at
certain Apple stores to compile those numbers. Interestingly Morgan Stanley
analyst Katy Huberty is predicting 30 million sales in the first year. KGI
Securities analyst Ming Chi-Kuo is swinging for 15 million sales.
Both
are way higher than FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives estimates. Moreover, he's
claiming that the wearable devices market represents a US$20 billion plus
market opportunity that Apple is yet to fully exploit.
So
is this the real deal?
Apple sells 12 million
in 2015 - Tag Heuer rattled and Android Wear is still catching up
It
would appear to be the case, as evidence by how Apple's competition is
responding.
Albeit
off to a rough start in April 2015 as noted in my blog article
entitled “Apple
Watch Appointment Fittings coming Friday April 10th 2015 - Why Apple
Appointments sets trend for How to sell a Wearable” their appointments strategy
seems to be the best fit, pun intended!
Apple
surpassed all expectations selling some 1 million units, beating the very sales
figure it had taken Pebble two (2) years to achieve as noted in my blog article
entitled “Apple
Watch pre-orders sold out until June 2015 - How 1 million served equals Pebble
Watch 2 years Sales in How to Sell a Wearable”.
The
Apple watch may be picking up so much traction that it even began to disrupt
the sales of Us Wristwatch maker who saw a 14% in June 2015 as noted in my blog article
entitled “U.S.
wristwatch sales in June 2015 dip due to Apple Watch - Why Apple Watch heralds
Armageddon for U.S. and Swiss Watchmakers”.
This
so rattled Tag Heuer that they released a US$1500 TAG Heuer Connected Watch in
November 2015 as noted in my MICO
Wars blog entitled “US$1500
TAG Heuer Connected Watch is worth its weight in precious Metals”.
The
offering by Huawei and LG appeared to be Android Wear 2014 rehashes smothered
with precious metals. The US$350 Huawei Watch in October 2015 is stylish but
isn’t waterproof as noted in my MICO
Wars blog entitled “Why
US$350 Huawei Watch cannot be used for Sex in the shower”.
The
US$1,200 LG Watch Urbane Luxe was not too bad but was too precious for arm
candy as explained in my MICO
Wars blog entitled “US$1,200
LG Watch Urbane Luxe in Gold and Leather for your lover this Christmas 2015”.
Apple US$20 billion
market opportunity - 2016 the year of the Apple Watch and Apple Pay
The
Second Quarter of 2015 ended with Apple estimated to have moved some 4 million
Apple Watches in the Second Quarter of 2015 as reported in my blog article
entitled “Apple
sells 4 million Apple Watches - How Samsung, Asus, Huawei, LG and Motorola
Empire Strikes back at IFA Trade Show”.
So
with analyst Canalys figure of 7 million for the Third Quarter of 2015, it
would seem that the FBR & Co. analyst Daniel Ives is also a slight over
estimate, albeit within the same conservative figure. Apple remained quiet even as analysts such as
Strategy Analytics tout the Apple Watch taking 72.8% of the wearable sales
during the July-September period.
Apple,
however, has coyly admitted that the Apple Watch outsold the first-generation
iPad within nine weeks (9) as reported in “Apple
sold more Apple Watches in 9 weeks than it sold iPhones and iPads when they
first launched”, published July 21, 2015 by Nathan McAlone, BusinessWeek.
More
proof that appointments is the best way to sell a smartwatch or any fashion
accessory that doubles as Tech as noted in my Geezam
blog article entitled “Apple’s
Appointment hands-on Approach is why Apple Watch succeeded”.
If
Apple can make the Apple Watch with a yearlong battery life, possibly powered
by a Hydrogen Fuel cell as noted in my blog article
entitled “Apple
files patent for Hydrogen Fuel cell – Why Portable Hydrogen Fuel Cells needed
to cut the Analog Power Cord” the Apple Watch would be a runaway success in
2016.
Even
if they used some other technology such as solar, kinetic charging to extend
the battery life as predicted in my blog article
entitled “Apple
considering Inductive, Solar and Kinetic Charging for Apple iWatch” this
would be enough to make it last longer than two (2) days.
Throw
in the expansion of Apple Pay in China in 2016 albeit missing the boat in South
Africa as noted in my blog article
entitled “Why
WeChat ewallet in South Africa as ScotiaBank Jamaica and Digicel going Cashless”
.
If
Apple can revamp the Apple Watch by April 2016 as a must-have accessory that
can do Apple Pay well, then that US$20 billion plus market opportunity would be
theirs for the taking!
There
is a lot more that I could add, but I'll wait until Apple reveals these figures
or the analysts dust off their crystal balls and make predictions for 2016, the
Year of the Monkey!
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