“The
current explosive epidemic will burn itself out due to a phenomenon called herd
immunity. Because the virus is unable to infect the same person twice -- thanks
to the immune system generating antibodies to kill it -- the epidemic reaches a
stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be
sustained”
Professor at Imperial's
School of Public Health, Dr. Neil Ferguson, commenting on the spread of the
Zika Virus
Zika
Virus sufferers in Jamaica don't have much to rejoice about these days! For
one, it's spreading rapidly across the island unchecked as the symptoms are so
mild as to be unnoticeable.
Now
comes word from the Imperial College London that the infected will end in the
next three (3) years as reported in “Zika
epidemic should fizzle out within 3 years: study”, published Thursday, July
14, 2016, The Jamaica Observer.
According to the scientists, in a study published in the US Journal Science, Globalization will make the disease spread rapidly. However, thanks to the fact that the infected rapidly develope immunities to the Zika Virus, the virus will soon run out of people to infect, a phenomenon known as herd immunity.
Eventually,
the rate of infection will burn itself out in three (3) years tops. Even more
interestingly, even if the Zika Virus mutates, thanks to this herd immunity,
it'll be a decade before it can infect anyone at this global level again.
Mosquito control a bad
idea, says Imperial College London – Increases chances of Zika Virus Mutations
Even
more interesting are the study’s observation on mosquito control methods such
as my crazy idea for a super-sized Carbon Dioxide Generator Mosquito Trap as
explained in my blog
article entitled “How
to kill Zika and Yellow Fever mosquitoes using a Carbon Dioxide Generator
Mosquito Trap”.
According
to the scientists at the Imperial College London, any such mosquito control
method, even using natural chemicals such as Garden croton, Tawa-tawa and Lemon
grass as described in my blog
article entitled “How
Garden croton, Tawa-tawa and Lemon grass can be used to kill Aedes Aegypti
Mosquito Larvae” will help to prolong the Zika Virus
spread, as they might promote mutations.
Worse,
the vaccine might be pointless; by the time it passes clinical trials, thanks
to herd immunity, there may not be anybody with the love virus in them in the
next three (3) years even test the vaccine on, as we'll all have immunities, to
quote Professor at Imperial's School of Public Health, Dr. Neil Ferguson: “If
our projections are correct, cases will have dropped substantially by the end
of next year, if not sooner. This means by the time we have vaccines ready to
be tested, there may not be enough cases of Zika in the community to test if
the vaccine works”.
CDC says Zika Virus
Spread Low-risk – No pregnancies for three years will lower populations
This
it makes sense that the CDC (Center for Disease Control) see the risk of a
massive Zika Virus spread during the Rio Olympics 2016 as a low risk
occurrence, as the rapid global spread may actual hasten the coming of Herd
immunity and thus cause the Zika Virus to fizzle out in less than three years.
The
Zika Virus may infect some 500,000 international visitors and athletes from 207
countries, but the probability of spread is also low due to cooler and drier
weather expected in Rio de Janeiro, to quote the CDC: “Visitors to the Games
are expected to have a low probability of mosquito-borne Zika infections
because the Games will occur during the winter season in Rio de Janeiro (August
5-21 and September 7-18, respectively) when the cooler and drier weather
typically reduces mosquito populations”.
Only
countries with weak health infrastructure may be devastated by a further spread
of the Zika Virus due to such a global travel event, namely:
1. Chad
2. Djibouti
3. Eritrea
4. Yemen
Still
to avoid babies being born with microcephaly as noted in my blog article
entitled “How
the Zika Virus now connected to Microcephaly, acute myelitis and Guillain-Barré
syndrome” pregnant women need not travel to the Rio Olympics.
Not
to mention just avoid getting pregnant for the next three years, a phenomenon
which may see a drop in birth-rates and population globally!
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