Moore's Law is about to come to a stop....at least
for 2D Silicon semiconductors
It's been predicted by the Semiconductor Industry
Association that semiconductors will stop shrinking in size by 2021 as reported
in the article “Chip
Makers Admit Transistors Are About to Stop Shrinking”, published July 25,
2016, by Jamia Condliff, Technology
Review.
In a study published in their 2015 International
Technology Roadmap for Semiconductor, Moore's Law will stop being true, at
least for Silicon based semiconductors. Moore's Law is the observation made by
Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 that the number of transistors per square
inch on integrated circuits will double every year since the integrated circuit
was invented.
Already Intel had delayed the release of their 10 nm
chip to 2016, after they’d originally promised to release it in 2016. The problem
is really quantum tunneling; at those small sizes, electrons no long travel
along conductive traces but instead jump between traces, shorting them out.
So is the end near for Moore's Law?
Semiconductor
Industry Association and Moore's Law - Miniaturization possible once the
material is not Silicon
The end is not as bad as Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell
makes it sound.
More specialized processor will result, specifically
designed to focus more on certain tasks, such as handling graphics, Deep
learning and Graphics processing as evident in smartphones.
Also keeping the processor cool will become very
important going forward, with improved, much quieter cooling technologies as
described in my blog
article entitled “UAH
Graduate Students use 3M's Fluorinert FC-72 in Passive Cooling System – Gaming
Rigs and Data Centers Noiseless Cooling Systems upgrade”.
3D processors are also in our future, heralding the
age of iso-linear processing power with processors stack one atop the other as described
in my blog
article entitled “@Intel
and Micron 3D V-NAND SSD – How 2.5 inch 10TD Processor SSD extend Moore's Law
against @Samsung in Storage Wars”.
We may also have to switch the material we use to
make processors such as carbon nanotubes, graphene and derivatives of silicon
such as silicene as described in my blog article
entitled “How
to grow @UTAustin Silicene Transistors and Group 4 Super-conducting Processors
and Batteries”.
Also the emergence of Li-Fi as a optical means of
increasing the bandwidth of free space Communication Systems in 2020 as
heralded in my blog
article entitled “Why
pureLiFi Solar Powered Li-Fi is coming to Apple iPhone with 5G Internet by 2020”.
Fiber
Optic Traces and Diamond PCD - Quantum computers are inevitable
So aside from Quantum computing, optical processors,
which use fiber optic traces instead of electrical ones are just around the
corner as described in my blog article
entitled “Why
@UCBerkeley and @MIT Optical Processor means Li-Fi and 5G Wireless by 2020”.
To keep things cool, making PCB (Printed Circuit
Boards) out of diamond may be the future of Computer electronics, due to
diamonds; incredible heat dissipating capabilities as noted in the article “Why Diamonds, Not Silicon, May Power Your Next Phone”,
published July 11, 2016 By Kyle Wiggers, Digitaltrends.
In the end, making sure the processor doesn’t
overheat and switching to light are ways that Intel can get around Quantum
tunneling even as they push into making Quantum computers, which is inevitable.
So the end is not as close as it appears; there are
many options to make Moore's Law continue, just not using silicon and just not
using 2D Architecture.
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